Table 1 Model parameter values and estimates. Estimated parameters are indicated in bold
Parameter | Description | Value (units) | Source/Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
ka | Proportion of observed infectious adults in Maela | 1.4×10−2 (unitless) | Estimated |
kc | Proportion of observed infectious children in Maela | 1.9×10−2 (unitless) | Estimated |
γ | Recovery rate for infectious humans | \(\frac {1}{4}\) (days−1) | |
σ | Ratio of bacterial shedding rates into the environment by children vs. adults | 1 (unitless) | Fixed (see “Methods” section) |
ξ | Decay rate of bacteria in the environment | 1.6×10−2 (days−1) | Estimated |
Transmission Parameters | |||
βI (βaa,βca,βac,βcc) | Transmission from infected humans to susceptible humans | 7.4×10−6 (\(\frac {1}{people \times time}\)) | Estimated |
βW (βwc,βwa) | Transmission from water to susceptible humans | 6.3×10−7 (\(\frac {1}{people \times time}\)) | Estimated |
Demographic Parameters | |||
μa | Death rate for adults | 1.7×10−4 (days−1) | Maela demographic data |
μc | Death rate for children | 1.5×10−4 (days−1) | Maela demographic data |
Ma | Migration rate for susceptible or recovered adults | 1.4 (\(\frac {people}{day}\)) | Maela demographic data |
Mc | Migration rate for susceptible or recovered children | 1.1 (\(\frac {people}{day}\)) | Maela demographic data |
B | Birth rate | 2.8 (\(\frac {people}{day}\)) | Maela demographic data |
Vaccine Effectiveness | |||
V E1 | Vaccine effectiveness for one dose of Shanchol | 0.325 (unitless) | [21] |
V E2 | Vaccine effectiveness for two doses of Shanchol | 0.63 (unitless) | [19] |