Fig. 5
Resurgence following 2 years of deployment of different interventions at PfPR2–10 = 4 and 9%. a Predicted relative resurgence at initial PfPR2–10 = 9% (EIR = 2 and E14 = 45%) with 95% confidence intervals estimated from fitting a 4-parameter logistic regression to the pooled simulations for strategy MDA alone (orange), mass vaccination alone (purple), mass vaccination with a longer duration vaccine (pink), MDA combined with mass vaccination (green) and MDA combined with a longer duration vaccine (blue). b The average minimum prevalence in the total population reached directly following each intervention. c-d Summarized parameters describing resurgence (boxplots with median and 95% confidence intervals) estimated from the logistic regressions to each simulations for each strategy are the estimated half-life or time till 50% resurgence, λ50, representing the years after maximum prevalence reduction was reached in which prevalence resurges by 50% of the reduction and the time till 10% resurgence, λ10, representing the years after maximum prevalence reduction was reached where prevalence resurges 10% of the reduction. The estimates are shown for initial PfPR2–10 = 9% in c and for initial PfPR2–10 = 4% in d. The corresponding number of simulations with resurgence per strategy and setting are indicated at the top of each summary boxplot