Fig. 2
Example time course of predicted all age prevalence following intervention. Single simulation examples (chosen at random) of estimated continuous (upper plots) and median and range of estimated yearly average (lower plots) all age prevalence following different intervention strategies deployed during 2 years. a estimated all age prevalence following mass vaccination (purple) or mass vaccination with longer duration vaccine (pink), b estimated all age prevalence following full rounds of MDA alone (orange) or in combination with mass vaccination (green) or mass vaccination with longer duration vaccine (blue). Intervention coverage of 60% was assumed, with an initial yearly average PfPR2–10 = 4% with peak PfPR2–10 ≈ 10–15% (corresponding to an initial EIR of 2 and effective access to care E14 = 45%). Full description of the different strategies can be found in Additional file 1: Table S2