Forecasting incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease using BP neural networks in Jiangsu province, China

BMC Infectious Diseases

Table 2 Selection of the univariate ARIMA model

Model	AIC	BIC	Ljung-Box test
Model	AIC	BIC	Q^a	p
ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)¹²	1132.12	1140.43	10.233	0.5272
ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)¹²	1135.73	1141.96	17.418	0.1432
ARIMA(2,0,1)(1,1,0)¹²	1133.77	1144.16	10.187	0.4422
ARIMA(2,0,0)(1,1,0)¹²	1134.98	1143.29	13.207	0.2944
ARIMA(3,0,1)(1,1,0)¹²	1134.63	1147.09	9.118	0.4455
ARIMA(3,0,0)(1,1,0)¹²	1132.76	1143.15	8.6807	0.5811
ARIMA(4,0,1)(1,1,0)¹²	1136.61	1151.15	8.4172	0.4136
ARIMA(4,0,0)(1,1,0)¹²	1134.64	1147.11	8.6288	0.4917

ISSN: 1471-2334