Estimating the impact of a novel drug regimen for treatment of tuberculosis: a modeling analysis of projected patient outcomes and epidemiological considerations

Table 2 Selected probabilities of durable cure, by active drugs and duration of treatment^a

Active drugs in prescribed regimen	4 months	6 months	18 months
HR(ZE) ^b	86.0%^c	94.4%	Not applicable
R(ZE) ^b	58.0%^c	83.3%	Not applicable
BPaMZ	93.7%	97.6%	Not applicable
BPamZ ^d	91.6%	96.8%	Not applicable
BPaM	89.5%	95.9%	Not applicable
BPaZ	86.5%	94.6%	Not applicable
BPam ^d	70.2%	89.4%	Not applicable
Conventional multidrug-resistant TB regimen with full fluoroquinolone activity [22, 23]	20.0%^c	40.2%^c	91.3%
Conventional multidrug-resistant TB regimen in presence of fluoroquinolone resistance [22, 23]	20.0%^c	20.0%^c	79.1%

^a Modeled as a function of two-month culture conversion and time on treatment, for the set of drugs in the prescribed regimen to which the patient’s TB strain is susceptible. Details in Additional file 1
^b Outcomes of HRZE are affected explicitly by isoniazid and/or rifampin resistance, but because data for the HRZE regimen come from studies that did not test for pyrazinamide or ethambutol resistance, outcomes are weighted averages reflecting the distribution of pyrazinamide and ethambutol resistance within each patient subpopulation
^c Durations of 4 months for HRZE, and of 4 or 6 month for conventional MDR regimens, are shown for comparison but are not prescribed and are used within the model only if patients are lost to follow up at these time points
^d “m” represents a moxifloxacin-containing regimen used to treat a TB strain that has low-level moxifloxacin resistance

ISSN: 1471-2334