Parameter | Estimate, South Africa | Range in sensitivity analysis | References and notes |
---|---|---|---|
Fraction of TB cases previously treated for TB | 10% | 8–13% | [9] |
Fraction of TB cases with HIV | 60% | 54–66% | [1] |
Baseline prevalence of RR, new cases | 3.4% | 2.5–4.3% | [1] |
Baseline prevalence of RR, cases previously treated for TB | 7.1% | 4.8–9.5% | [1] |
Prevalence of pyrazinamide resistance, if RR | 44% | 33–55% | [7] |
Prevalence of pyrazinamide resistance, if RS | 1.3% | 0.8–2.0% | [7] |
Prevalence of any moxifloxacin resistance, if RR | 9.5% | 4–18% | |
Prevalence of high-level moxifloxacin resistance, if RR | 5.9% | 2–12% | |
Prevalence of any moxifloxacin resistance, if RS | 0.4% | 0–0.9% | |
Mean time from TB onset to TB diagnosis | 9 months | 6–15 | Incidence:prevalence ratio estimates [1] |
Pretreatment loss to follow up | 10% | 5–20% | [11] |
Monthly loss to follow up during treatment | 1% | 0.8–2% | [12] |
Monthly TB mortality, untreated active TB | 2.1% | 2.3–2.8% | |
Present-day Xpert MTB/RIF coverage, new patients | 70% | 60–80% | [1] with projected increase to 2019 |
Present-day Xpert MTB/RIF coverage, patients previously treated for TB | 75% | 60–90% | [1] with projected increase to 2019 |
Relapse after six months HRZE or four months of BPaMZ (assuming drug susceptibility)a | 6.3% | 2–12% | |
Odds ratio of cure from moxifloxacin-containing regimen, low-level versus high-level moxifloxacin resistance | 1.7 | 1.3–2.2 | [17], based on levofloxacin vs ofloxacin when ofloxacin resistant |
Risk of acquired RR after HRZE b | 0.005 | 0.002–0.15 | [18] |
Risks of acquired B, Pa, or M after BPaMZ b | 0.002 | 0–0.01 | Assumed |
Risk of acquired moxifloxacin resistance after conventional multidrug-resistant TB regimen | 0.04 | 0.005–0.08 | [19] |