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Fig. 1 | BMC Infectious Diseases

Fig. 1

From: Estimating the impact of a novel drug regimen for treatment of tuberculosis: a modeling analysis of projected patient outcomes and epidemiological considerations

Fig. 1

Model diagram. The full pathway of treatment and beyond is shown here only for RR-TB receiving the novel regimen, but other pathways proceed similarly. Transition probabilities depend on characteristics of the individual patient and on the BPaMZ implementation scenario modeled. Probability of cure depends on the drugs in the regimen prescribed, the initial drug resistance, and the duration of treatment completed. Acquired resistance, by definition, means the patient will not be cured; the probability of acquired resistance is accounted for in the overall probability of failure or relapse for each possible combination of patient and treatment course. Failure or relapse is split into failure (which immediately returns to active TB) and relapse (which becomes active after a short delay). Loss to follow up is modeled as a constant hazard during treatment, with cumulative risk thus depending on the treatment duration. Death, not shown, also may occur from any state, with mortality being increased among patients with HIV and/or TB

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