Skip to main content

Table 5 results of external validation of prediction rules and guidelines to rule-in and rule-out serious bacterial infection

From: Performance of prediction rules and guidelines in detecting serious bacterial infections among Tanzanian febrile children

Prediction rule/guideline

n/Na

%test positive

% sensitivity (95% CI)

% specificity (95% CI)

Likelihood ratio (95% CI)

positive

negative

Bleeker

126/731

62.9%

81.0 (73.0–87.4)

40.8 (36.9–44.9)

1.37 (1.23–1.52)

0.47 (0.32–0.68)

Thayyil

162/1001

5.2%

31.7 (24.7–39.4)

74.4 (71.3–77.4)

1.24 (0.96–1.60)

0.92 (0.82–1.03)

Lab Score

126/731

68.3%

70.6 (61.9–78.4)

32.2 (28.5–36.1)

1.04 (0.92–1.18)

0.91 (0.68–1.22)

 Rotterdam fever model

 2.5% risk

161/985

66.50%

77.3 (70.1–83.5)

35.6 (32.4–39.0)

1.21 (1.10–1.32)

0.64 (0.47–0.86)

 5% risk

161/985

55.53%

69.9 (62.3–76.9)

47.3 (43.9–50.8)

1.33 (1.18–1.50)

0.64 (0.50–0.81)

 15% risk

161/985

36.24%

49.7 (41.8–57.6)

66.4 (63.1–69.6)

1.48 (1.23–1.78)

0.76 (0.65–0.89)

IMCI

164/1005

30.8%

36.7 (29.4–44.6)

70.3 (67.1–73.4)

1.22 (0.97–1.55)

0.90 (0.79–1.02)

iCCM

164/1005

30.5%

36.7 (29.4–44.6)

70.7 (67.5–73.7)

1.25 (1.00–1.57)

0.89 (0.79–1.01)

ALMANACH

164/1005

44.3%

63.3 (55.4–70.6)

63.2 (59.8–66.4)

1.72 (1.48–1.99)

0.58 (0.47–0.71)

NICE

164/1005

76.0%

83.7 (77.2–89.0)

25.5 (22.6–28.6)

1.12 (1.04–1.22)

0.64 (0.44–0.92)

AAEP

164/1005

41.7%

68.1 (60.4–75.1)

63.5 (60.2–66.8)

1.87 (1.63–2.14)

0.50 (0.40–0.63)

  1. aNumber of children with SBI out of all children included into validation. N represents the total number of children for which all variables of the prediction rule were recorded (please also refer to Additional file 2: Table S1)