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Table 5 results of external validation of prediction rules and guidelines to rule-in and rule-out serious bacterial infection

From: Performance of prediction rules and guidelines in detecting serious bacterial infections among Tanzanian febrile children

Prediction rule/guideline n/Na %test positive % sensitivity (95% CI) % specificity (95% CI) Likelihood ratio (95% CI)
positive negative
Bleeker 126/731 62.9% 81.0 (73.0–87.4) 40.8 (36.9–44.9) 1.37 (1.23–1.52) 0.47 (0.32–0.68)
Thayyil 162/1001 5.2% 31.7 (24.7–39.4) 74.4 (71.3–77.4) 1.24 (0.96–1.60) 0.92 (0.82–1.03)
Lab Score 126/731 68.3% 70.6 (61.9–78.4) 32.2 (28.5–36.1) 1.04 (0.92–1.18) 0.91 (0.68–1.22)
 Rotterdam fever model
 2.5% risk 161/985 66.50% 77.3 (70.1–83.5) 35.6 (32.4–39.0) 1.21 (1.10–1.32) 0.64 (0.47–0.86)
 5% risk 161/985 55.53% 69.9 (62.3–76.9) 47.3 (43.9–50.8) 1.33 (1.18–1.50) 0.64 (0.50–0.81)
 15% risk 161/985 36.24% 49.7 (41.8–57.6) 66.4 (63.1–69.6) 1.48 (1.23–1.78) 0.76 (0.65–0.89)
IMCI 164/1005 30.8% 36.7 (29.4–44.6) 70.3 (67.1–73.4) 1.22 (0.97–1.55) 0.90 (0.79–1.02)
iCCM 164/1005 30.5% 36.7 (29.4–44.6) 70.7 (67.5–73.7) 1.25 (1.00–1.57) 0.89 (0.79–1.01)
ALMANACH 164/1005 44.3% 63.3 (55.4–70.6) 63.2 (59.8–66.4) 1.72 (1.48–1.99) 0.58 (0.47–0.71)
NICE 164/1005 76.0% 83.7 (77.2–89.0) 25.5 (22.6–28.6) 1.12 (1.04–1.22) 0.64 (0.44–0.92)
AAEP 164/1005 41.7% 68.1 (60.4–75.1) 63.5 (60.2–66.8) 1.87 (1.63–2.14) 0.50 (0.40–0.63)
  1. aNumber of children with SBI out of all children included into validation. N represents the total number of children for which all variables of the prediction rule were recorded (please also refer to Additional file 2: Table S1)