Fig. 1

Time series analysis of the monthly number of reported cases with infectious disease syndromes in Mongolia from Jan 2009 to Dec 2017 and forecasting the trends up to Dec 2020. a. Acute fever with rash b. Acute fever with vesicular rash c. Acute jaundice d. Acute watery diarrhea e. Acute bloody diarrhea f. Foodborne disease g. Nosocomial infection. AFR, acute fever with rash; AFVR, acute fever with vesicular rash; AJ, acute jaundice; AWD, acute watery diarrhea; ABD, acute bloody diarrhea; FD, foodborne disease; NI, nosocomial infection . Horizontal axis is the month for measurement, and vertical axis is the incidence rate of reported cases by 10,000 population, as indicated. Forecasting models for AFR, AFVR, AJ, AQD, ABD, FD, and NI are ARIMA(1,0,1), ARIMA(0,1,1,)(0,1,1)₁₂, ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)₁₂, ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1)₁₂, ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1)₁₂, additive seasonal exponential smoothing method, and additive seasonal exponential smoothing method, respectively. Circles are actual data, and solid line shows forecasted data. Dotted lines indicates the time point at which the observed (left of the dotted line) and predicted (right of the dotted line) values are divided. Gray zone shows the 95% confidence limits.. The forecast for AFVR was assessed until the end of 2018, because the forecast for AFVR was too sensitive to the increasing trend near the end of 2017, and resulted in unreasonable forecast in long-term forecasting