Table 2 Estimated HIV transmissions per 100 cases at 36 months post-infection
Scenario | Month 3 | Month 6 | Month 12 | Month 18 | Month 24 | Month 36 | Sum over 36 months post-infection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenarios based on observed data | |||||||
Non-ART | 2.79(2.05–3.85) | 1.41(1.04–1.95) | 1.26(0.93–1.74) | 1.60(1.18–2.21) | 0.71(0.52–0.98) | 0.65(0.48–0.90) | 41.83(30.75–57.69) |
Standard-ART | 1.85(1.36–2.56) | 1.77(1.30–2.45) | 1.81(1.33–2.50) | 0.47(0.34–0.65) | 0.44(0.32–0.61) | 0.44(0.32–0.61) | 32.51(23.89–44.85) |
Early-ART | 1.29(0.95–1.78) | 0.07(0.05–0.09) | 0.03(0.02–0.04) | 0.04(0.03–0.06) | 0.05(0.04–0.07) | 0.26(0.19–0.36) | 7.95(5.85–10.95) |
Scenarios based on observed and hypothetical data | |||||||
Non-ART plus partners’ PrEP | 0.28(0.21–0.38) | 0.14(0.10–0.19) | 0.13(0.09–0.17) | 0.16(0.12–0.22) | 0.07(0.05–0.10) | 0.06(0.05–0.09) | 4.18(3.07–5.77) |
Standard-ART plus partners’ PrEP | 0.19(0.14–0.26) | 0.18(0.13–0.24) | 0.18(0.13–0.25) | 0.05(0.03–0.06) | 0.04(0.03–0.06) | 0.04(0.03–0.06) | 3.25(2.39–4.48) |
Early-ART plus partners’ PrEP | 0.13(0.10–0.18) | 0.01(0.01–0.01) | 0.01(0.01–0.01) | 0.01(0.01–0.01) | 0.01(0.01–0.01) | 0.03(0.02–0.04) | 0.79(0.58–1.09) |