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Table 2 Estimated HIV transmissions per 100 cases at 36 months post-infection

From: Efficacy and cost-effectiveness of early antiretroviral therapy and partners’ pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men in Shenyang, China: a prospective cohort and costing study

ScenarioMonth 3Month 6Month 12Month 18Month 24Month 36Sum over 36 months post-infection
Scenarios based on observed data
 Non-ART2.79(2.05–3.85)1.41(1.04–1.95)1.26(0.93–1.74)1.60(1.18–2.21)0.71(0.52–0.98)0.65(0.48–0.90)41.83(30.75–57.69)
 Standard-ART1.85(1.36–2.56)1.77(1.30–2.45)1.81(1.33–2.50)0.47(0.34–0.65)0.44(0.32–0.61)0.44(0.32–0.61)32.51(23.89–44.85)
 Early-ART1.29(0.95–1.78)0.07(0.05–0.09)0.03(0.02–0.04)0.04(0.03–0.06)0.05(0.04–0.07)0.26(0.19–0.36)7.95(5.85–10.95)
Scenarios based on observed and hypothetical data
 Non-ART plus partners’ PrEP0.28(0.21–0.38)0.14(0.10–0.19)0.13(0.09–0.17)0.16(0.12–0.22)0.07(0.05–0.10)0.06(0.05–0.09)4.18(3.07–5.77)
 Standard-ART plus partners’ PrEP0.19(0.14–0.26)0.18(0.13–0.24)0.18(0.13–0.25)0.05(0.03–0.06)0.04(0.03–0.06)0.04(0.03–0.06)3.25(2.39–4.48)
 Early-ART plus partners’ PrEP0.13(0.10–0.18)0.01(0.01–0.01)0.01(0.01–0.01)0.01(0.01–0.01)0.01(0.01–0.01)0.03(0.02–0.04)0.79(0.58–1.09)
  1. ART antiretroviral therapy, PrEP pre-exposure prophylaxis