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Table 1 Observed and estimated (in the presence and absence of vaccination) total number of hospital admissions and admissions averted between 2003 and 2015, including 95% credible intervalsa

From: The impact of childhood pneumococcal vaccination on hospital admissions in England: a whole population observational study

 

Bacteraemia

Meningitis

Pneumonia

All diseases

Age group

 < 2 years

  Observed

1248

1818

1243

4309

  ITSb

1248 (1180, 1318)

1818(1735, 1903)

1243(1176, 1314)

4308(4181, 4440)

  Counterfactualc

2232 (1632, 3269)

2566(2103, 3265)

2707(2030, 3770)

7309(6276, 8629)

  Admissions avertedd

−981(− 2018, − 391)

− 749 (− 1442, − 295)

−1464(− 2522, − 793)

−3001(− 4314, − 1987)

 2–4 years

  Observed

411

227

861

1499

  ITS

411 (372, 452)

227(198, 257)

861(804, 920)

1499(1423, 1575)

  Counterfactual

536 (322, 1078)

607(268, 1753)

2595(1542, 4740)

3525(2463, 5325)

  Admissions averted

−126(− 661, + 87)

− 379(− 1526, − 45)

− 1734(− 3871, − 692)

−2026(− 3809, − 972)

 5–14 years

  Observed

290

279

796

1365

  ITS

290 (257, 324)

279(248, 313)

795(741, 852)

1365(1294, 1439)

  Counterfactual

703 (273, 2321)

647(295, 1778)

2407(1438, 4346)

3667(2414, 5884)

  Admissions averted

−413(− 2030, + 14)

−368(− 1492, − 19)

− 1611(− 3536, − 647)

−2302(− 4509, − 1058)

 15–44 years

  Observed

1546

939

7481

9966

  ITS

1545(1469, 1624)

939(880, 1000)

7480(7312, 7652)

9967(9772, 10,163)

  Counterfactual

2557(1750, 3922)

1499(950, 2569)

20,285(16,507, 25,257)

23,497(19,788, 28,185)

  Admissions averted

−1011(− 2374, − 212)

− 560(− 1625, − 12)

−12,798(− 17,750, − 9020)

−13,533(− 18,214, − 9822)

 45–64 years

  Observed

2620

1549

10,826

14,995

  ITS

2619(2521, 2722)

1549(1473, 1626)

10,827(10,628, 11,031)

14,994(14,755, 15,236)

  Counterfactual

4772(3458, 6866)

1995(1399, 2996)

22,598(18,790, 27,438)

28,712(24,596, 33,567)

  Admissions averted

−2102(− 4232, − 854)

−448(− 1442, + 141)

− 11,777(− 16,597, − 7979)

− 13,719(− 18,556, − 9628)

 ≥ 65 years

  Observed

5392

1199

21,781

6955

  ITS

5392(5249, 5538)

1199(1133, 1267)

21,779(21,492, 22,070)

28,371(28,040, 28,708)

  Counterfactual

4722 (3459, 6866)

1221(836, 1891)

38,751(34,403, 43,763)

43,284(39,036, 47,987)

  Admissions averted

+ 20(− 1199, + 929)

−21(− 684, + 359)

− 16,963(− 21,937, − 12,662)

−14,909(− 19,564, − 10,693)

 All age groups

  Observed

11,507

6011

42,988

60,506

  ITS

11,506(11,298, 11,718)

6011(5862, 6165)

42,986(42,580, 43,393)

60,502(60,024, 60,979)

  Counterfactual

15,080(13,171, 17,492)

8266(7123, 9697)

84,821(77,680, 92,722)

104,022(96921111847)

  Admissions averted

− 3571(− 5973, − 1682)

− 2258(− 3667,-1122)

−41,845(− 49,706,-34,692)

−43,531(− 51,346,-36,486)

  1. aFor each diagnosis, separate models were fitted by age group
  2. bITS – interrupted time series - model the impact of vaccination
  3. cCounterfactual – expected hospital admissions in the absence of vaccination
  4. dAdmissions averted since April 2007