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Table 3 Performance of the mortality prediction model for individual score values

From: Candidaemia and a risk predictive model for overall mortality: a prospective multicentre study

Score 6.5 5.5 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0
Cumulative fraction with value ≥ to Score 0.7 5.2 8.2 17.9 23.1 36.6 53.0 63.4 82.1 85.1 92.5 100.0
PPV 100 86 73 71 65 55 51 44 35 34 33 31
NPV 69 70 72 73 78 80 84 92 92 92 90 100
Sens 2 15 20 41 49 66 88 90 95 95 100 100
Spec 100 100 99 97 92 88 76 62 48 24 19 11
  1. Data presented as %
  2. A cut off of 2 divided the current, derivation cohort into < 20% or ≥ 20% mortality
  3. Using a score > 2 on the historical, validation dataset, 161 died out of 393 at risk, compared with an expected number of 223, whilst in those with scores ≤2, 41 died out of 349 at risk, compared with an expected number of 39
  4. In those with a score of 0 in the historical, validation dataset, one death was predicted and observed. A score of 0 had a NPV of 100% with a predicted and observed mortality < 5% though this only incorporated 7.5% (10/133) of the current, derivation cohort and 4.3% of the historical (32/741) cohort
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BMC Infectious Diseases

ISSN: 1471-2334

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