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Table 2 Predictors of attrition and virological failure on second-line ART

From: Retention in care and virological failure among adult HIV+ patients on second-line ART in Rwanda: a national representative study

Predictors Multivariate analysis
Defaulting from care Virological failure
Adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) p-value Adjusted odds ratio (95% CI) p-value
Age category (years). Reference category Age 40–59 a
 15–29 years 0.85 (0.42, 1.71) 0.654 2.22 (1.46, 3.38) < 0.001
 30–39 years 1.03 (0.58, 1.81) 0.930 1.45 (1.03, 2.05) 0.032
 60+ years 1.87 (0.80, 4.38) 0.147 0.74 (0.36, 1.53) 0.421
Sex a
 Male vs. female 0.87 (0.53, 1.43) 0.585 1.07 (0.80, 1.43) 0.644
Marital status. Reference category single a
 Married/Cohabitating 0.48 (0.26, 0.90) 0.023 0.96 (0.64, 1.45) 0.857
 Separated/Divorced 0.69 (0.24, 1.96) 0.487 0.56 (0.27, 1.14) 0.110
 Widowed 0.57 (0.24, 1.34) 0.197 0.71 (0.40, 1.26) 0.242
 Missing 0.31 (0.15, 0.65) 0.002 1.02 (0.68, 1.54) 0.916
ART initiation. Reference category 2009 and before a
 2010–2012 2.43 (1.47, 4.01) 0.001   
 2013–2016 2.49 (1.00, 6.18) 0.049   
TB Screening. Reference category TB negative +
 Positive 1.26 (0.64, 2.49) 0.504 1.40 (0.92, 2.13) 0.117
 No screening 3.04 (1.49, 6.22) 0.002 1.01 (0.54, 1.88) 0.979
BMI category. Reference category recommended weight +
 Underweight BMI< 1.94 (1.05, 3.57) 0.034 0.99 (0.66, 1.50) 0.965
 Overweight BMI > 1.23 (0.73, 2.06) 0.432 0.80 (0.59, 1.09) 0.155
CD4 Category +
  ≤ 500 copies vs. >  500 cells/mm3 2.12 (1.20, 3.75) 0.009 5.40 (3.75, 7.77) < 0.001
WHO Stages. Reference category Stage 1–2 a
 Stage 3–4 1.22 (0.77, 1.96) 0.399 1.56 (1.18, 2.06) 0.002
 Missing 0.49 (0.06, 3.73) 0.489 1.36 (0.46, 3.99) 0.574
Second-line regimen +
 ATV/r + 2 NRTI vs. LPV/r + 2 NRTI 0.52 (0.29, 0.93) 0.027 1.48 (1.12, 1.95) 0.005
Viral load suppression +
  > 1000 copies/mL vs ≤ 1000 copies/mL 2.95 (1.83, 4.76) < 0.001   
Health facility types +
 HC vs. RH/PV 0.93 (0.52, 1.65) 0.799 1.55 (1.11, 2.17) 0.010
 DH vs. RH/PV 1.23 (0.68, 2.22) 0.496 0.92 (0.63, 1.34) 0.653
  1. a variable measured at initiation of ART, + variable measured at switch to second line ART
  2. CI confidence interval, DH district hospital, HC health centre, PH provincial hospital, RH regional hospital, TB tuberculosis, BMI body mass index, ART antiretroviral therapy, WHO World Health Organization, ATV/r ritonavir boosted atazanavir, LPV/r ritonavir boosted lopinavir, NRTI nucleoside/nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors
  3. BMI categories: underweight ≤18.5 kg/m2, normal weight = 18.5–24.9 kg/m2, overweight& obesity =25 kg/m2 or greater