Table 4 Model projections with Xpert as the diagnostic tool for each triage option with X-ray available for triage (Fig. 1b). (Base Case – Microscopy diagnostic tool and no triage)
Diagnostic & triage options | Presumptive TB cases receiving diagnostic test per yr. | True TB cases b starting treatment per year and case detection c % | False TB cases d starting TB treatment per year | Time between starting triage and receiving diagnosis (days) | Additional true TB cases starting treatment over base case per year a | Additional cost compared to base case per year a (US$ 000 s) | Cost per additional true TB patient diagnosed and treated (US$) a |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Microscopy No Triage (base case) | 10,281 | 1238 75% | 543 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Xpert No Triage | 10,284 | 1375 83% | 419 | 5.0 | 137 (57, 217) | 581 (555, 607) | 4242 (1372, 7111) |
Xpert T2 Cough 1wk | 9204 | 1370 83% | 401 | 4.4 | 132 (54, 210) | 536 (512, 559) | 4057 (1313, 6802) |
Xpert T3 Cough>3wks | 7340 | 1290 80% | 289 | 3.5 | 52 (−15, 119) | 278 (266, 290) | 5345 (1729, 8960) |
Xpert T4 Clinical score | 7365 | 1353 82% | 296 | 3.5 | 114 (38, 190) | 380 (363, 397) | 3331 (1078, 5584) |
Xpert T5 ANN | 8477 | 1352 82% | 341 | 4.0 | 114 (43, 187) | 451 (431, 470) | 3952 (1278, 6625) |
Xpert T6 TPP optimal | 5823 | 1354 82% | 218 | 2.8 | 116 (45, 187) | 172 (164, 179) | 1481 (479, 2483) |
Xpert T7 TPP minimal | 6367 | 1366 83% | 231 | 3.1 | 128 (56, 200) | 301 (287, 314) | 2349 (760, 3938) |