| |
Total infection over 20 years (2018~2037), million
|
HIV infections prevented over 20 years, million
|
HIV infections prevented over 20 years, %
|
HIV prevalence at 2037, %
|
HIV incidence rate at 2037, per 100 person-years
|
Incremental costs, Int.$ (billion)
|
Incremental QALYs, million
|
Average CER, Int.$/QALY, relative to base case
|
Saving in healthcare cost, Int.$ (billion)
|
|---|
|
Base case
|
0.78 (0.60–1.00)
|
–
|
–
|
11.2 (9.1–14.2)
|
0.73 (0.56–0.98)
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
|
Test and treat (90–90)
|
0.33 (0.28–0.39)
|
0.45 (0.28–0.62)
|
57.9% (46.4–66.5%)
|
5.8 (4.8–6.8)
|
0.24 (0.18–0.29)
|
2.13 (0.61–4.03)
|
1.22 (0.94–1.53)
|
1754 (462–3960)
|
8.86 (5.33–13.92)
|
|
PrEP-25% HRMSM
|
0.68 (0.57–0.87)
|
0.09 (0.06–0.14)
|
12.1% (8.7–16.7%)
|
9.8 (8.2–12.8)
|
0.61 (0.50–0.80)
|
3.08 (1.76–5.30)
|
0.18 (0.12–0.23)
|
17,277 (12,127–23,711)
|
1.73 (0.94–2.79)
|
|
PrEP-50% HRMSM
|
0.62 (0.52–0.80)
|
0.16 (0.10–0.23)
|
20.2% (15.1–26.9%)
|
8.9 (7.5–11.7)
|
0.53 (0.44–0.70)
|
5.34 (3.07–9.10)
|
0.30 (0.21–0.38)
|
17,979 (12,631–24,991)
|
2.87 (1.60–4.52)
|
|
PrEP-75% HRMSM
|
0.57 (0.49–0.75)
|
0.20 (0.13–0.29)
|
25.7% (19.6–33.3%)
|
8.4 (7.0–11.0)
|
0.47 (0.40–0.63)
|
6.98 (4.05–11.80)
|
0.38 (0.27–0.48)
|
18,452 (12,972–25,846)
|
3.64 (2.06–5.64)
|
|
Test+PrEP-25% HRMSM
|
0.53 (0.46–0.68)
|
0.24 (0.15–0.34)
|
30.8% (23.9–39.3%)
|
7.9 (6.8–10.2)
|
0.42 (0.36–0.53)
|
6.83 (4.39–10.62)
|
0.49 (0.37–0.61)
|
13,835 (9600–18,598)
|
4.36 (2.46–6.82)
|
|
Test+PrEP-50% HRMSM
|
0.46 (0.39–0.59)
|
0.32 (0.21–0.44)
|
41.0% (33.3–49.9%)
|
6.8 (5.8–8.8)
|
0.31 (0.26–0.40)
|
10.61 (6.65–16.76)
|
0.64 (0.48–0.78)
|
16,636 (11,595–22,919)
|
5.77 (3.37–8.86)
|
|
Test+PrEP-75% HRMSM
|
0.41 (0.35–0.53)
|
0.36 (0.25–0.49)
|
47.0% (39.3–55.6%)
|
6.2 (5.2–8.1)
|
0.25 (0.20–0.33)
|
13.20 (8.25–20.85)
|
0.73 (0.56–0.88)
|
18,110 (12,660–25,289)
|
6.64 (3.95–10.12)
|
|
Test and treat (90–90) + PrEP 25% HRMSM
|
0.24 (0.21–0.30)
|
0.53 (0.39–0.68)
|
68.3% (61.1–75.4%)
|
4.6 (3.7–5.6)
|
0.12 (0.08–0.15)
|
10.11 (7.42–13.49)
|
1.33 (1.12–1.69)
|
7574 (5166–10,243)
|
10.17 (6.30–16.33)
|
|
Test and treat (90–90) + PrEP 50% HRMSM
|
0.21 (0.18–0.26)
|
0.56 (0.43–0.72)
|
72.8% (66.6–78.7%)
|
4.1 (3.4–5.1)
|
0.09 (0.06–0.11)
|
14.69 (10.27–20.60)
|
1.40 (1.19–1.76)
|
10,485 (7199–14,484)
|
10.83 (6.82–17.25)
|
|
Test and treat (90–90) + PrEP 75% HRMSM
|
0.19 (0.16–0.24)
|
0.58 (0.45–0.74)
|
75.2% (69.7–80.5%)
|
3.9 (3.2–4.8)
|
0.07 (0.05–0.09)
|
17.63 (12.14–25.06)
|
1.44 (1.23–1.81)
|
12,218 (8415–16,992)
|
11.23 (7.13–17.81)
|
- PrEP pre-exposure prophylaxis, QALY quality-adjusted life years, CER cost-effectiveness ratio, Int.$ international dollars, HRMSM, high-risk MSM
- aInterventions that cost less than per capita gross domestic product (i.e., 15,943 Int.$) per QALYgained are defined as very cost effective [40]
- bInterventions that cost between one and three times per capita gross domestic product per QALY gained are defined as cost effective [40]
