Table 1 Parameter summary
Prms | Meaning | Fixed | Reference | Infer | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
λ (t) | TB force of infection function |  |  | NA | See Fig. 2 |
ß 1 | Transmission rate of the year 1996 |  |  | Yes | |
ß 2 | Transmission rate of the year 2015 |  |  | Yes | |
Φ | Probability that a new infection results in an active TB. | 10% | No |  | |
ε 1 | Relative rate that a new infection results in an active TB between people in L and U. | 0.21 | [53] |  |  |
ε 2 | Relative rate that a new infection results in an active TB between people in R and U. |  |  | Yes |  |
ω 1 | TB reactivation rate of people in L. | 0.00098 p-yrs | [54] |  | The life-time risk: 5–10% |
ω 2 | TB reactivation rate people in R. |  |  | Yes |  |
k 1 | Relative rate that a new infection results in an active TB case between hyper-susceptible individuals (Ua, La, and Ra) and uninfected people (U). | Â | Â | Yes | Â |
ω h1 | TB reactivation rate of hyper-susceptible individuals with latent TB (La). |  |  | Yes |  |
ω h2 | TB reactivation rate of hyper-susceptible individuals with recovered TB (Ra). |  |  | Yes |  |
δp | Probability of an active TB in G1 develop into pulmonary TB. | 78% | HCMC Report | No |  |
δph | Probability of an active TB in G2 develop into pulmonary TB. | 57% | HCMC Report | No |  |
d ptb | Death probability of PTB case. | 1% | HCMC Report | No | Â |
d Exptb | Death probability of ExPTB case. | 10% | HCMC Report | No | Â |
s ptb | Probability of successful treatment for PTB | 95% | HCMC Report | No | Â |
s Exptb | Probability of successful treatment for ExPTB | 80% | HCMC Report | No | Â |
η | Recovery rate | 2 |  | No | Average infectious time: 6 months. |
γ | Infectivity of co-infected pulmonary cases |  |  | Yes |  |
r new-tb (t) | Reporting rate of new TB cases at yeart | Â | Â | NA | Â |
r relapsed-tb (t) | Reporting rate of relapsed TB cases at year t | Â | Â | NA | Â |
r 1 | Parameter of rnew-tb(t) and rrelapsed-tb(t) | Â | Â | Yes | See Fig. 2 |
r 2 | Parameter of rrelapsed-tb(t) | Â | Â | Yes | |
Breaking-year | Parameter of rrelapsed-tb(t) - breaking year. | Â | Â | Yes | |
b | Birth rate |  |  | No | Parameter b is adjusted to sustain the HCMC population size GSO’s report. |
N | Population Size | Â | [32] | No | |
μ | Natural death rate | 0.0054 | [32] | No | |
sc | Scaling parameter | 1.9508 | Â | No | See Section 1.1 of supplement |
est | Expected survival time of hyper-susceptible individuals. | 1Â yr | Â | No |