Table 2 Modelled outcomes between 2017 and 2025 for each scenario
Scenario | Additional notifications between 2017 and 2025 (absolute numbers, × 1000) | Number of cases averted between 2017 and 2025 (× 1000) | Percent reduction in incidence by 2025 compared to 2017 | Absolute change in PPV by 2025 compared to baseline | Number of additional FP notifications per additional TP notification | Number of additional notifications needed to avert one case | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | TP | FP | |||||||
Scenario 1 | Algorithm A | 4.0 | 6.4 | −2.4 | 14.7 | 8.4% | + 2 | −0.4 | 0.3 |
Algorithm B | 13.8 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 24.2 | 12.2% | −5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | |
Scenario 2 | ICF with microscopy | 24.3 | 1.3 | 23.0 | 3.6 | 3.6% | −11 | 17.7 | 6.7 |
ICF with GeneXpert | −25.1 | 6.6 | − 31.7 | 5.0 | 4.3% | + 36 | −4.8 | −5.0 | |