|
Scenario
|
Additional notifications between 2017 and 2025 (absolute numbers, × 1000)
|
Number of cases averted between 2017 and 2025 (× 1000)
|
Percent reduction in incidence by 2025 compared to 2017
|
Absolute change in PPV by 2025 compared to baseline
|
Number of additional FP notifications per additional TP notification
|
Number of additional notifications needed to avert one case
|
|---|
|
Total
|
TP
|
FP
|
|---|
|
Scenario 1
|
Algorithm A
|
4.0
|
6.4
|
−2.4
|
14.7
|
8.4%
|
+ 2
|
−0.4
|
0.3
|
|
Algorithm B
|
13.8
|
7.6
|
6.2
|
24.2
|
12.2%
|
−5
|
0.8
|
0.6
|
|
Scenario 2
|
ICF with microscopy
|
24.3
|
1.3
|
23.0
|
3.6
|
3.6%
|
−11
|
17.7
|
6.7
|
|
ICF with GeneXpert
|
−25.1
|
6.6
|
− 31.7
|
5.0
|
4.3%
|
+ 36
|
−4.8
|
−5.0
|
- TP True positive notification; FP False positive notification; PPV Positive predictive value; Scenario 1 comparing the impact of two different diagnostic algorithms in a defined population; Algorithm A Prolonged cough & GeneXpert; Algorithm B Any symptom & microscopy/clinical diagnosis; Scenario 2 Examining the impact of expanding case detection towards population of lower disease
