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Table 2 Annual bOPV SIA frequencies between the tOPV-bOPV switch and bOPV cessation assumed for the different population immunity maintenance scenarios, adopted from prior work [29] for the analysis of the vulnerability of populations in the event of non-synchronous bOPV cessation

From: Planning for globally coordinated cessation of bivalent oral poliovirus vaccine: risks of non-synchronous cessation and unauthorized oral poliovirus vaccine use

Subpopulation characteristics

Annual number of bOPV SIAs for each population immunity maintenance scenario

Routine immunization coverage with 3 or more non-birth bOPV doses

Basic reproduction number (for serotype 1 wild poliovirus)

Base case (continued high population immunity maintenance)

Medium population immunity maintenance

Low population immunity maintenancea

5% or 10%

Any

6

4

3

30%

Any

5

3

2

60%

10 or less

3

1

1

60%

More than 10

5

3

1

90%

Any

1

1

0

98%

10 or less

0

0

0

98%

More than 10

1

0

0

  1. a Previous research indicates that this scenario results in a circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus outbreak after bOPV cessation [29].
  2. bOPV bivalent oral poliovirus vaccine, tOPV trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine, SIA supplemental immunization activity