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Table 2 Annual bOPV SIA frequencies between the tOPV-bOPV switch and bOPV cessation assumed for the different population immunity maintenance scenarios, adopted from prior work [29] for the analysis of the vulnerability of populations in the event of non-synchronous bOPV cessation

From: Planning for globally coordinated cessation of bivalent oral poliovirus vaccine: risks of non-synchronous cessation and unauthorized oral poliovirus vaccine use

Subpopulation characteristics Annual number of bOPV SIAs for each population immunity maintenance scenario
Routine immunization coverage with 3 or more non-birthĀ bOPV doses Basic reproduction number (for serotype 1 wild poliovirus) Base case (continued high population immunity maintenance) Medium population immunity maintenance Low population immunity maintenancea
5% or 10% Any 6 4 3
30% Any 5 3 2
60% 10 or less 3 1 1
60% More than 10 5 3 1
90% Any 1 1 0
98% 10 or less 0 0 0
98% More than 10 1 0 0
  1. a Previous research indicates that this scenario results in a circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus outbreak after bOPV cessation [29].
  2. bOPV bivalent oral poliovirus vaccine, tOPV trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine, SIA supplemental immunization activity