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Table 2 Bayes factors for each model applied to AFP and environmental surveillance data of serotype 1 WPV in Pakistan, January 2010 – August 2015 . A Bayes factor greater than 1.00 indicates an improved model fit when compared to the baseline model

From: Population sensitivity of acute flaccid paralysis and environmental surveillance for serotype 1 poliovirus in Pakistan: an observational study

Assumption for AFP surveillance Assumption for environmental surveillance Number of parameters Model evidence Bayes Factor
One value One value 4 − 502.9 NA
Linear increase with log10(incidence) One value 5 − 493.9 9*
One value Linear increase with catchment size 5 −504.5 −1.6
Linear increase with log10(incidence) Linear increase with catchment size 6 − 495.3 7.6*
One value Quadratic relationship with catchment size 6 − 505.5 −2.6
Linear increase with log10(incidence) Quadratic relationship with catchment size 7 − 496.3 6.6*
One value Mixed effects structure (no association with catchment size) 6 − 491.4 11.5*
Linear increase with log10(incidence) Mixed effects structure (no association with catchment size) 7 − 481.3 21.6*
  1. The starred models have an improved fit to the data in comparison to the simplest model and the best-fitting model is highlighted in bold