|
Demography
|
|
Population 2014
|
8,117,564
|
Fixed
| |
[10]
|
|
Age Specific All-cause Mortality
|
Varies
|
Fixed
| |
[8]
|
|
Infection
|
|
Force of Infection
| |
Fixed
| |
[20, 44]
|
|
Scale parameter
|
0.854327
|
Fixed
| | |
|
Shape parameter
|
0.00159689
|
Fixed
| | |
|
Shape parameter
|
11.5766
|
Fixed
| | |
|
Duration of Maternal Immunity (mo)
|
6.5
|
Fixed
| |
[45]
|
|
Latency period (d)
|
14
|
Fixed
| |
[46, 47]
|
|
Age-specific mean duration of infectiousness (wk)
| |
Fixed
| |
[48, 49]
|
|
0–4 y
|
3.5
| | | |
|
5–9 y
|
3.0
| | | |
|
10+ y
|
2.5
| | | |
|
Vaccine
|
|
Vaccine efficacy, one does only (%)
|
100
|
87.3–100
|
Derived Distribution
|
[22]
|
|
Vaccine efficacy, two doses (%)
|
100
|
87.3–100
|
Derived Distribution
|
Assumed
|
|
Median duration of vaccine-derived immunity, one dose only (y)
|
21
|
20.3–21.9
|
Gamma (2647.1, 0.0079)
|
Assumed
|
|
Median duration of vaccine-derived immunity, two doses (y)
|
32
|
30.9–33.4
|
Gamma (2517.63,0.127)
|
[23]
|
|
Vaccination Strategy
|
|
Vaccine uptake, universal strategy, first dose (%)
|
95%
|
80–97
|
Beta (34.37426,1.0007488)
|
Assumed
|
|
Vaccine adherence, probability of second dose given first dose (%)
|
95%
|
70–95
|
Beta (27.15759,2.49654)
|
Assumed
|
|
Clinical Outcomes
|
|
Under reporting factor
|
11.76
|
Fixed
| |
Estimated
|
|
Probability an infection is icteric
|
Varies
|
Fixed
| |
[20]
|
|
Proportion of icteric infections hospitalized (%)
| | | |
[21]
|
|
≤ 4 y
|
0.395
| |
Dirichlet(D1)a
| |
|
5–14 y
|
1.45
| |
Dirichlet(D2)
| |
|
15–39 y
|
1.91
| |
Dirichlet(D3)
| |
|
40–59 y
|
1.57
| |
Dirichlet(D4)
| |
|
60+ y
|
1.7
| |
Dirichlet(D5)
| |
|
Probability of fulminant hepatitis A from an icteric infection (%)
| | | |
[21]
|
|
≤ 4 y
|
0.0323
| |
Dirichlet(D1)
| |
|
5–14 y
|
0.00425
| |
Dirichlet(D2)
| |
|
15–39 y
|
0.0578
| |
Dirichlet(D3)
| |
|
40–59 y
|
0.468
| |
Dirichlet(D4)
| |
|
60+ y
|
0.68
| |
Dirichlet(D5)
| |
|
Probability of liver transplant from an icteric infection (%)
| | | |
[21]
|
|
≤ 4 y
|
0.00606
| |
Dirichlet(D1)
| |
|
5–14 y
|
0.000797
| |
Dirichlet(D2)
| |
|
15–39 y
|
0.0108
| |
Dirichlet(D3)
| |
|
40–59 y
|
0.0877
| |
Dirichlet(D4)
| |
|
60+ y
|
0.017
| |
Dirichlet(D5)
| |
|
Probability of death from an icteric infection (%)
| | | |
[21]
|
|
≤ 4 y
|
0.00468
| |
Dirichlet(D1)
| |
|
5–14 y
|
0.000616
| |
Dirichlet(D2)
| |
|
15–39 y
|
0.00838
| |
Dirichlet(D3)
| |
|
40–59 y
|
0.0678
| |
Dirichlet(D4)
| |
|
60+ y
|
0.456
| |
Dirichlet(D5)
| |
|
Probability of death during first year of liver transplant (%)
|
11.6
|
6.0–42.0
|
Beta (1.14982, 8.76245)
|
[50]
|
|
Probability of death from year 2 and beyond after liver transplant (%)
|
4.4
|
2.4–11.0
|
Beta (3.80137, 82.5935)
|
[50]
|
|
Duration of outpatient icteric infection (d)
|
34.4
|
17–40
|
Gamma (34.37,1.00)
|
[51]
|
|
Duration of inpatient icteric infection (d)
|
67.8
|
27–78
|
Gamma (27.16,2.50)
|
[51]
|
|
Economic Parameters
|
|
Cost of one-dose vaccine (2015 $)
|
10.00
|
8.00–14.00
|
Gamma (42.6844, 0.234277,1.1,3)
|
Estimated
|
|
Test Costs
|
22.55
|
Fixed
| |
[26]
|
|
Cost of one-dose administration
|
1.91
|
Fixed
| |
Estimated
|
|
outpatient cost
|
$15.06
|
10–25
|
Gamma (8.71228, 7.77408)
|
[27]
|
|
outpatient visits
|
3
|
1–4
|
Estimated
|
|
hospitalization cost
|
$ 111.5
|
80–150
|
Gamma (6.43896, 81.4262)
|
[26]
|
|
hospitalization duration
|
4.5
|
3–7
|
Estimated
|
|
fulminant cost
|
$35,715
|
32,143–39,278
|
Gamma (385.022, 92.7609)
|
[26]
|
|
annual cost of patients with liver transplant (1st year)
|
$70,000
|
50,000–90,000
|
Gamma (47.0596, 1487.48)
|
[26]
|
|
annual cost of patients with liver transplant (subsequent years)
|
43,203
|
34,563–51,843
|
Gamma(96.0533, 449.781)
|
Estimated
|
|
Public health cost of a reported infection (2013 $)
|
0
|
0–15
|
Gamma(1.092722,3.660584)
|
Estimated
|
|
work loss, outpatient (d)
|
15.5
|
7–18
|
Gamma(30.51056,0.508021)
|
[51]
|
|
work loss, inpatient (d)
|
33.2
|
10–25
|
Gamma(75.2776,0.4410342)
|
[51]
|
|
work loss, fulminant (d)
|
33.2
|
10–25
|
Gamma(75.2776,0.4410342)
|
[51]
|
|
work loss, year of transplant (d)
| | | |
[25]
|
|
0–17 y
|
153.2
|
145–160
|
Gamma(1602.9, 0.0955766)
| |
|
18–40 y
|
245
|
238–253
|
Gamma (4099.41, 0.0597646)
| |
|
41–55 y
|
271
|
268–274
|
Gamma (31,347.9, 0.00864492)
| |
|
56–62 y
|
288
|
284–291
|
Gamma (26,011.2, 0.0110721)
| |
|
63+
|
314
|
306–321
|
Gamma (6733.62, 0.0466316)
| |
|
Labor force participation (%)
| | | |
[52]
|
|
16–19 y
|
3.15
|
1–28
|
Beta[1.4452,44.4342]
| |
|
20–24 y
|
33.8
|
31–72
|
Beta[6.57547,12.8786]
| |
|
25–34 y
|
64.0
|
57–70
|
Beta[133.435,75.0572]
| |
|
35–44 y
|
59.6
|
51 – 71
|
Beta[54.5338,36.9658]
| |
|
45–54 y
|
47.1
|
35–59
|
Beta[30.8364,34.6337]
| |
|
55–64 y
|
30.7
|
0–62
|
Beta[2.30395,5.20078]
| |
|
65+
|
10.0
|
0–23
|
Beta[2.51432,22.6289]
| |
|
Median Monthly earnings (2014 $)
| | | |
[53]
|
|
< 25 y
|
292
|
137–350
|
Gamma(13.6337, 21.4175)
| |
|
25+
|
365
|
250–650
|
Gamma(28.8788, 10.1112)
| |
|
Discount rate per year, %
|
3
|
0–5
| |
Assumed
|
|
Utilities
|
|
Average population norms
| | | |
[31]
|
|
20–29 y
|
.920
|
0.913–0.927
|
Beta(5307.7008, 461.5392)
| |
|
30–39 y
|
.905
|
0.898–0.912
|
Beta(6099.1932,640.2468)
| |
|
40–49 y
|
.874
|
0.867–0.882
|
Beta(6572.4195,947.5113)
| |
|
50–59 y
|
.848
|
0.840–0.857
|
Beta(5810.9376,1041.5832)
| |
|
60–69 y
|
.824
|
0.812–0.836
|
Beta(3187.1645,680.7536)
| |
|
70–79 y
|
.785
|
0.771–0.798
|
Beta(2791.9027,764.6613)
| |
|
80+ y
|
.744
|
0.720–0.768
|
Beta(944.3511,324.9380)
| |
|
Persons with anicteric hepatitis A
|
.830
|
0.789–0.867
|
Beta(291.9525,59.7975)
|
[21]
|
|
Persons with icteric hepatitis A
|
.642
|
0.607–0.682
|
Beta(410.1317,228.3050)
|
[29]
|
|
Persons with liver transplant
|
.730
|
0.630–0.840
|
Beta(49.4052,18.2732)
|
[30]
|
