Parameter | Base Case | Range | Distribution | Reference |
---|---|---|---|---|

Demography | ||||

Population 2014 | 8,117,564 | Fixed | [10] | |

Age Specific All-cause Mortality | Varies | Fixed | [8] | |

Infection | ||||

Force of Infection | Fixed | [20, 44] | ||

Scale parameter | 0.854327 | Fixed | ||

Shape parameter | 0.00159689 | Fixed | ||

Shape parameter | 11.5766 | Fixed | ||

Duration of Maternal Immunity (mo) | 6.5 | Fixed | [45] | |

Latency period (d) | 14 | Fixed | [46, 47] | |

Age-specific mean duration of infectiousness (wk) | Fixed | [48, 49] | ||

0–4 y | 3.5 | |||

5–9 y | 3.0 | |||

10+ y | 2.5 | |||

Vaccine | ||||

Vaccine efficacy, one does only (%) | 100 | 87.3–100 | Derived Distribution | [22] |

Vaccine efficacy, two doses (%) | 100 | 87.3–100 | Derived Distribution | Assumed |

Median duration of vaccine-derived immunity, one dose only (y) | 21 | 20.3–21.9 | Gamma (2647.1, 0.0079) | Assumed |

Median duration of vaccine-derived immunity, two doses (y) | 32 | 30.9–33.4 | Gamma (2517.63,0.127) | [23] |

Vaccination Strategy | ||||

Vaccine uptake, universal strategy, first dose (%) | 95% | 80–97 | Beta (34.37426,1.0007488) | Assumed |

Vaccine adherence, probability of second dose given first dose (%) | 95% | 70–95 | Beta (27.15759,2.49654) | Assumed |

Clinical Outcomes | ||||

Under reporting factor | 11.76 | Fixed | Estimated | |

Probability an infection is icteric | Varies | Fixed | [20] | |

Proportion of icteric infections hospitalized (%) | [21] | |||

≤ 4 y | 0.395 |
Dirichlet(D1)^{a}
| ||

5–14 y | 1.45 | Dirichlet(D2) | ||

15–39 y | 1.91 | Dirichlet(D3) | ||

40–59 y | 1.57 | Dirichlet(D4) | ||

60+ y | 1.7 | Dirichlet(D5) | ||

Probability of fulminant hepatitis A from an icteric infection (%) | [21] | |||

≤ 4 y | 0.0323 | Dirichlet(D1) | ||

5–14 y | 0.00425 | Dirichlet(D2) | ||

15–39 y | 0.0578 | Dirichlet(D3) | ||

40–59 y | 0.468 | Dirichlet(D4) | ||

60+ y | 0.68 | Dirichlet(D5) | ||

Probability of liver transplant from an icteric infection (%) | [21] | |||

≤ 4 y | 0.00606 | Dirichlet(D1) | ||

5–14 y | 0.000797 | Dirichlet(D2) | ||

15–39 y | 0.0108 | Dirichlet(D3) | ||

40–59 y | 0.0877 | Dirichlet(D4) | ||

60+ y | 0.017 | Dirichlet(D5) | ||

Probability of death from an icteric infection (%) | [21] | |||

≤ 4 y | 0.00468 | Dirichlet(D1) | ||

5–14 y | 0.000616 | Dirichlet(D2) | ||

15–39 y | 0.00838 | Dirichlet(D3) | ||

40–59 y | 0.0678 | Dirichlet(D4) | ||

60+ y | 0.456 | Dirichlet(D5) | ||

Probability of death during first year of liver transplant (%) | 11.6 | 6.0–42.0 | Beta (1.14982, 8.76245) | [50] |

Probability of death from year 2 and beyond after liver transplant (%) | 4.4 | 2.4–11.0 | Beta (3.80137, 82.5935) | [50] |

Duration of outpatient icteric infection (d) | 34.4 | 17–40 | Gamma (34.37,1.00) | [51] |

Duration of inpatient icteric infection (d) | 67.8 | 27–78 | Gamma (27.16,2.50) | [51] |

Economic Parameters | ||||

Cost of one-dose vaccine (2015 $) | 10.00 | 8.00–14.00 | Gamma (42.6844, 0.234277,1.1,3) | Estimated |

Test Costs | 22.55 | Fixed | [26] | |

Cost of one-dose administration | 1.91 | Fixed | Estimated | |

outpatient cost | $15.06 | 10–25 | Gamma (8.71228, 7.77408) | [27] |

outpatient visits | 3 | 1–4 | Estimated | |

hospitalization cost | $ 111.5 | 80–150 | Gamma (6.43896, 81.4262) | [26] |

hospitalization duration | 4.5 | 3–7 | Estimated | |

fulminant cost | $35,715 | 32,143–39,278 | Gamma (385.022, 92.7609) | [26] |

annual cost of patients with liver transplant (1st year) | $70,000 | 50,000–90,000 | Gamma (47.0596, 1487.48) | [26] |

annual cost of patients with liver transplant (subsequent years) | 43,203 | 34,563–51,843 | Gamma(96.0533, 449.781) | Estimated |

Public health cost of a reported infection (2013 $) | 0 | 0–15 | Gamma(1.092722,3.660584) | Estimated |

work loss, outpatient (d) | 15.5 | 7–18 | Gamma(30.51056,0.508021) | [51] |

work loss, inpatient (d) | 33.2 | 10–25 | Gamma(75.2776,0.4410342) | [51] |

work loss, fulminant (d) | 33.2 | 10–25 | Gamma(75.2776,0.4410342) | [51] |

work loss, year of transplant (d) | [25] | |||

0–17 y | 153.2 | 145–160 | Gamma(1602.9, 0.0955766) | |

18–40 y | 245 | 238–253 | Gamma (4099.41, 0.0597646) | |

41–55 y | 271 | 268–274 | Gamma (31,347.9, 0.00864492) | |

56–62 y | 288 | 284–291 | Gamma (26,011.2, 0.0110721) | |

63+ | 314 | 306–321 | Gamma (6733.62, 0.0466316) | |

Labor force participation (%) | [52] | |||

16–19 y | 3.15 | 1–28 | Beta[1.4452,44.4342] | |

20–24 y | 33.8 | 31–72 | Beta[6.57547,12.8786] | |

25–34 y | 64.0 | 57–70 | Beta[133.435,75.0572] | |

35–44 y | 59.6 | 51 – 71 | Beta[54.5338,36.9658] | |

45–54 y | 47.1 | 35–59 | Beta[30.8364,34.6337] | |

55–64 y | 30.7 | 0–62 | Beta[2.30395,5.20078] | |

65+ | 10.0 | 0–23 | Beta[2.51432,22.6289] | |

Median Monthly earnings (2014 $) | [53] | |||

< 25 y | 292 | 137–350 | Gamma(13.6337, 21.4175) | |

25+ | 365 | 250–650 | Gamma(28.8788, 10.1112) | |

Discount rate per year, % | 3 | 0–5 | Assumed | |

Utilities | ||||

Average population norms | [31] | |||

20–29 y | .920 | 0.913–0.927 | Beta(5307.7008, 461.5392) | |

30–39 y | .905 | 0.898–0.912 | Beta(6099.1932,640.2468) | |

40–49 y | .874 | 0.867–0.882 | Beta(6572.4195,947.5113) | |

50–59 y | .848 | 0.840–0.857 | Beta(5810.9376,1041.5832) | |

60–69 y | .824 | 0.812–0.836 | Beta(3187.1645,680.7536) | |

70–79 y | .785 | 0.771–0.798 | Beta(2791.9027,764.6613) | |

80+ y | .744 | 0.720–0.768 | Beta(944.3511,324.9380) | |

Persons with anicteric hepatitis A | .830 | 0.789–0.867 | Beta(291.9525,59.7975) | [21] |

Persons with icteric hepatitis A | .642 | 0.607–0.682 | Beta(410.1317,228.3050) | [29] |

Persons with liver transplant | .730 | 0.630–0.840 | Beta(49.4052,18.2732) | [30] |