Fig. 3

Role of social mixing vs. travel behavior. (a): Simulated weekly incidence profiles for influenza in Belgium. The realistic model is compared to the travel changes model, the mixing changes model, the regular weekday model. Median curves are shown for all cases, along with 50% confidence intervals (dark shade) and 95% CI (light shade), for the realistic and regular weekday model (they are not shown for the other models for the sake of visualization). (b)-(c)-(d): Peak time difference \({\left (\Delta T^{p}= T^{p}_{scenario} - T^{p}_{realistic\,\, \text {model}}\right)}\), relative variation of epidemic size \({\left (\Delta \sigma ^{p}= \left (\sigma ^{p}_{scenario} - \sigma ^{p}_{realistic\,\text {model}}\right)/ \sigma ^{p}_{realistic\, \text {model}}\right)}\), and relative variation of peak incidence \({\left (\Delta I^{p}= \left (I^{p}_{scenario} - I^{p}_{realistic\, \text {model}}\right)/I^{p}_{realistic\,\text {model}}\right)}\), respectively, across the three experimental scenarios (see “Methods” for more details). Boxplots refer to the distributions across patches