Table 3 Results of the 27 factors that were assessed in the 16 models
Factor components | Results | Effect direction | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Factor type | Factor | Factor measurement for 2009 | # | No effect | Association | Determinant | Partial determinant | Country variance | Positive result | Negative result | Different than expected |
Environmental | Pollution | pm10 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4.03 | 6 | 0 | |
co2 emissions | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 0 | |||
Crowding | Pop. density | 3 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.38 | 4 | 0 | ||
Cold climate | Latitude | 4 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 8.6 | 0 | 16 | ✓ | |
Physiological comorbidities in adults | Obesity | BMI > 30 (% both sexes) | 5 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | ✓ |
BMI > 30 (% of females) | 6 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.61 | 1 | 1 | ✓ | ||
BMI > 30 (% of males) | 7 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 3 | ✓ | ||
Pulmonary disease | Female COPD deaths | 8 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.82 | 1 | 0 | ||
Male COPD deaths | 9 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.57 | 4 | 0 | |||
Immuno-suppression | %HIV | 10 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4.26 | 9 | 0 | ||
%TB | 11 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2.05 | 5 | 0 | |||
% HIV ARTs | 12 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2.71 | 2 | 0 | ✓ | ||
Physiological comorbidities in children | Asthma | %13 and 14 yr. olds with wheeze | 13 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.81 | 0 | 0 | |
Treatment | Antiviral use | Kilos of drugs distributed 2007–2009 | 14 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2.21 | 0 | 1 | |
Kilos of drugs distributed 2009 | 15 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.57 | 0 | 0 | |||
Healthcare | Healthcare expenditure | Healthcare spending as %GDP | 16 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | ✓ |
Demographics | Population age | % < 15 | 17 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 35.2 | 16 | 0 | |
% > 60 | 18 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 45.13 | 0 | 16 | |||
Population growth | Pregnancy -Crude birth rate | 19 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2.71 | 0 | 0 | ||
pH1N1 Viral Factors | Pandemic factors | Pandemic Start | 20 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.86 | 0 | 0 | |
Pandemic Peak | 21 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.76 | 0 | 1 | ✓ | ||
Co-circulation | 2008 H3N2 dominance | 22 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.65 | 0 | 5 | ||
2008 sH1N1 dominance | 23 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.62 | 0 | 0 | |||
2009 H3N2 co-circulation | 24 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 8.08 | 9 | 0 | |||
2009 flu B co-circulation | 25 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2.99 | 4 | 0 | |||
Other | CDC multiplier | Lower respiratory deaths | 26 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1.88 | 3 | 0 | |
International flight traffic | All registered take offs | 27 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 0 | ||