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Table 3 Results of the 27 factors that were assessed in the 16 models

From: Possible explanations for why some countries were harder hit by the pandemic influenza virus in 2009 – a global mortality impact modeling study

Factor components Results Effect direction
Factor type Factor Factor measurement for 2009 # No effect Association Determinant Partial determinant Country variance Positive result Negative result Different than expected
Environmental Pollution pm10 1 10 3 5 2 4.03 6 0  
co2 emissions 2 16 0 0 0 0.48 0 0  
Crowding Pop. density 3 12 2 2 0 1.38 4 0  
Cold climate Latitude 4 0 16 0 0 8.6 0 16
Physiological comorbidities in adults Obesity BMI > 30
(% both sexes)
5 15 1 0 0 1 0 1
BMI > 30
(% of females)
6 14 1 1 0 0.61 1 1
BMI > 30
(% of males)
7 13 3 0 0 0.86 0 3
Pulmonary disease Female COPD deaths 8 15 0 1 0 0.82 1 0  
Male COPD deaths 9 12 2 2 0 1.57 4 0  
Immuno-suppression %HIV 10 7 5 4 0 4.26 9 0  
%TB 11 11 2 3 0 2.05 5 0  
% HIV ARTs 12 14 2 0 0 2.71 2 0
Physiological comorbidities in children Asthma %13 and 14 yr. olds with wheeze 13 16 0 0 0 0.81 0 0  
Treatment Antiviral use Kilos of drugs distributed 2007–2009 14 15 0 1 0 2.21 0 1  
Kilos of drugs distributed 2009 15 16 0 0 0 2.57 0 0  
Healthcare Healthcare expenditure Healthcare spending as %GDP 16 14 1 1 0 1.2 1 1
Demographics Population age % < 15 17 0 16 2 2 35.2 16 0  
% > 60 18 0 16 3 3 45.13 0 16  
Population growth Pregnancy -Crude birth rate 19 11 4 1 0 2.71 0 0  
pH1N1 Viral Factors Pandemic factors Pandemic Start 20 16 0 0 0 1.86 0 0  
Pandemic Peak 21 15 1 0 0 2.76 0 1
Co-circulation 2008 H3N2 dominance 22 11 0 5 0 5.65 0 5  
2008 sH1N1 dominance 23 16 0 0 0 1.62 0 0  
2009 H3N2 co-circulation 24 7 0 9 0 8.08 9 0  
2009 flu B co-circulation 25 12 0 4 0 2.99 4 0  
Other CDC multiplier Lower respiratory deaths 26 13 1 2 0 1.88 3 0  
International flight traffic All registered take offs 27 16 0 0 0 0.49 0 0