Table 2 The 27 factors selected from the literature search that were included in the modeling analysis
Factor type | Factor | Factor measurement for 2009 | # | Metric unit | Data source | No. Countries with data | Value range or % – all countries | Value range or % – stage 1 countries | Stage 1 countries with data (20) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Environmental | Pollution | pm10 | 1 | μg/m3 | World Bank | 167 | 6.7–156.2 | 11.7–60.2 | ✓ |
co2 emissions | 2 | (KT) per 1000 | 174 | 0.06–6533.0 | 15.1–6533.0 | ✓ | |||
Crowding | Pop. Density | 3 | Per square km | 178 | 1.75–7125.1 | 2.9–7125.2 | |||
Cold Climate | Latitude | 4 | Absolute degree | 178 | 0–65 | 1–56 | ✓ | ||
Physiological comorbidities in adults | Obesity | BMI > 30 (% both sexes) | 5 | % | WHO | 176 | 1.1–59.6 | 4.5–33.5 | |
BMI > 30 (% females) | 6 | 175 | 19.8–36.3 | 21.7–29.9 | ✓ | ||||
BMI > 30 (% of males)30 | 7 | 175 | 20.1–32.7 | 22.7–29.3 | |||||
Pulmonary Disease | Female COPD deaths | 8 | Per 100,000 | 173 | 4–125 | 7–89 | ✓ | ||
Male COPD deaths | 9 | 170 | 8–178 | 19–118 | |||||
Immuno-suppression | %HIV | 10 | % | World Bank | 145 | 0.1–25.9 | 0.1–17.8 | ✓ | |
TB | 11 | Per 100,00 | 172 | 0.8–1193 | 4.5–808 | ✓ | |||
% HIV ARTs | 12 | %HIV * %HIV ARTS | 102 | 0.004–22.3 | 0.07–7.5 | ||||
Physiological comorbidities in children | Asthma | %13 and 14 yr. olds with wheeze | 13 | % | Global Asthma Report | 50 | 3–28 | 5.1–28 | ✓ |
Treatment | Antiviral Use | Kilos of drugs distributed 2007–2009 | 14 | Per 100,000 | IMS | 60 | 0–16.2 | 0.06–15.1 | |
Kilos of drugs distributed 2009 | 15 | 60 | 0–16.1 | 0.05–8.1 | |||||
Healthcare | Healthcare expenditure | Healthcare spending as %GDP | 16 | % | World Bank | 173 | 2.0–16.2 | 3.9–16.2 | |
Demographics | Population age | % < 15 | 17 | % total population | World Bank | 176 | 13–50 | 13–31 | ✓ |
% > 60 | 18 | 176 | 2–30 | 7–30 | ✓ | ||||
Population growth | Pregnancy -Crude birth rate | 19 | Per 1000 | 178 | 8.1–53.2 | 8.1–21.7 | ✓ | ||
pH1N1 Viral Factors | Pandemic factors | Pandemic Start | 20 | Weeks (1–52) | FluNet | 81 | 5–46 | 5–37 | ✓ |
Pandemic Peak | 21 | 86 | 15–50 | 21–46 | ✓ | ||||
Pre and co-circulation | 2008 H3N2 dominance | 22 | 0 or 1 (1= > 50%) | 69 | 34.8 | 35.3 | |||
2008 sH1N1 dominance | 23 | 69 | 18.8 | 23.5 | |||||
2009 H3N2 co-circulation | 24 | 0 r 1 (1= > 1%) | 90 | 46.7 | 52.6 | ||||
2009 flu B co-circulation | 25 | 90 | 35.6 | 21.1 | ✓ | ||||
Other | CDC multiplier | Lower respiratory deaths | 26 | Per 100,000 | CDC paper | 169 | 3–275 | 11–107 | ✓ |
International flight traffic | All registered take offs | 27 | Per 1000 | World Bank | 137 | 0–9182.4 | 25.5–9182.4 | ✓ |