Fig. 1From: Future complications of chronic hepatitis C in a low-risk area: projections from the hepatitis c study in Northern NorwayThe natural course of hepatitis C. The Markov model is based on simulation of transition from a given category to the next based on probability estimates. The progression of fibrosis towards cirrhosis is based on local data, whereas most of the remaining estimated probabilities are previously published from other cohorts. In all states of HCV, there is also an annual risk of dying from natural courses, which is implicitly included in the modelBack to article page