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Table 2 Predictors of Switching to Second-Line ART after Virologic Failure

From: Rates of switching to second-line antiretroviral therapy and impact of delayed switching on immunologic, virologic, and mortality outcomes among HIV-infected adults with virologic failure in Rakai, Uganda

Characteristics n/ pys n/100 pys (95% CI) Univariate analysis Multivariate Analysis
Hazard ratio (95% CI) p-value Hazard ratio (95% CI) p-value
Overall 82/168.7 48.6(39.1–60.4)     
Age in years
 18–24 11/12.1 90.9(50.3–164.1) Ref   Ref  
 25–34 48/78.3 61.3(46.2–81.3) 0.85(0.5–1.6) 0.022 0.96(0.5–1.8) 0.254
  ≥ 35 23/78.3 29.4(19.5–44.2) 0.46(0.2–0.9) 0.63(0.3–1.3)
Gender
 Female 52/104 50(38.1–65.6) Ref 0.377 Ref 0.224
 Male 30/64.7 46.4(32.4–66.3) 0.82(0.5–1.3) 0.74(0.5–1.2)
Year of ART initiation
 2004–2007 52/124.4 41.8(31.9–54.9) Ref 0.239   
 2008–2011 30/44.3 67.7(47.3–96.8) 1.31(0.8–2.0)  
Type of ART treatment clinic
 Central clinic 16/21.8 73.5(45–120) Ref 0.338   
 Peripheral clinic 66/146.9 44.9(35.3–57.2) 0.76(0.4–1.3)  
WHO stage at ART initiation
 1 24/45.1 53.2(35.6–79.3) Ref 0.912   
 2 33/75.6 43.7(31–61.4) 0.91(0.6–1.5)  
 3 or 4 25/48 52.1(35.2–77.2) 0.90(0.5–1.6)  
First-line ART regimen
 EFV-based regimen 22/43.8 50.2(33.1–76.2) Ref 0.670   
 NVP-based regimen 60/124.9 48(37.3–61.9) 1.11(0.7–1.8)  
CD4 count at ART initiation (cells/ul)
  ≥ 100 45/129 34.9(26–46.7) Ref <0.001 Ref <0.001
  ≤ 99 37/39.7 93.2(67.5–128.6) 2.31(1.5–3.6) 2.30(1.5–3.6)
CD4 count at ART failure (cells/ul)a
  ≥ 100 60/141.3 42.5(33–54.7) Ref 0.316   
  ≤ 99 7/3.9 180.1(85.8–377.7) 1.57(0.6–3.8)  
Viral load at ART failure (copies/ml)
  ≤ 5000 16/76.4 20.9(12.8–34.2) Ref <0.001 Ref <0.001
 5001–10,000 12/39 30.8(17.5–54.2) 1.44(0.8–2.7) 1.81(0.9–3.6)
  > 10,000 54/53.3 101.3(77.6–132.2) 3.44(2.0–6.0) 3.38(1.9–6.2)
Year of virologic failure
 2004–2007 52/124.4 41.8(31.9–54.9) Ref 0.239  
 2008–2013 30/44.3 67.7(47.3–96.8) 1.33(0.8–2.1)  
Virologic suppression prior to virologic failure
 No 52/124.4 41.8(31.9–54.9) Ref 0.797  
 Yes 30/44.3 67.7(47.3–96.8) 0.95(0.6–1.5)  
  1. a35 patients did not have CD4 count at time of confirmed virologic failure; EFV Efavirenz, NVP Nevirapine, n = patients switched to second-line, pys = person years