Model baseline fit to empirical data. Graphs a-f: Black dots show the empirical estimates, and the error bars show the acceptable ranges for the outputs used in fitting the model. Black lines show the median model output. Blue/green bands show 10% quantiles of model outputs. The full width of the band shows the range of the model output. Graphs g-i: Orange boxes show the empirical data and acceptable ranges. Green boxes show the model output. Model fits to the remaining 28 outcomes are shown in McCreesh et al.