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Table 3 Reduction (%) in HIV incidence rate at 4 years compared to the baseline rate for an increased coverage of ART, VMMC and PrEP in different combinations

From: Combined interventions to reduce HIV incidence in KwaZulu-Natal: a modelling study

  No PrEP + PrEP
15–24 years: 40%
25–34 years: 0%
35–59 years: 0%
+ PrEP
15–24 years: 20%
25–34 years: 0%
35–59 years: 0%
+ PrEP
15–24 years: 15%
25–34 years: 10%
35–59 years: 5%
No changea 24% 32% 28% 28%
ART at CD4<500 at     
  15–24 years: 55%
  25–34 years: 75%
  35–59 years: 85%
 + Baseline VMMC 30% 38% 34% 34%
  15–24 years: 26%
  25–34 years: 21%
  35–59 years: 19%
 + Increased VMMC at 34% 41% 37% 37%
  15–24 years: 70%
 + Increased VMMC at 31% 39% 35% 35%
  15–24 years: 35%
  25–34 years: 25%
  35–59 years: 20%
ART for all at     
  15–24 years: 50%
  25–34 years: 70%
  35–59 years: 80%
 + Baseline VMMC 36% 43% 40% 39%
  15–24 years: 26%
  25–34 years: 21%
  35–59 years: 19%
 + Increased VMMC at 39% 46% 42% 42%
  15–24 years: 70%
 + Increased VMMC at 37% 44% 40% 40%
  15–24 years: 35%
  25–34 years: 25%
  35–59 years: 20%
  1. aNo change in baseline interventions: ART at CD4 < 350 and baseline VMMC (i.e. VMMC coverage at 26%, 21%, and 19% among age groups 15–24, 25–34, and 35–59 years respectively; see Methods section)