Table 1 Model variables: Baseline values and ranges used in sensitivity analysis

Natural history of HPV

Age-specific table

HPV-2

Serotypes covered*efficacy

 Efficacy for cervical cancer

0.836*0.965

0.575–0.989

[27, 30]

 Efficacy for genital warts

0.107*0.990

0.756–0.131

Assumed

HPV-4

 Efficacy for cervical cancer

0.849*0.960

0.588–0.982

[28, 30]

 Efficacy for genital warts

0.869*0.990

0.627–0.999

[29, 30]

HPV-9

 Efficacy for cervical cancer

0.849*0.960 + 0.096*0.967

0.665–1.000

[29, 30]

 Efficacy for genital warts

0.869*0.990

0.627–0.999

[29, 30]

Pap smear

 Sensitivity

0.65

0.50–0.80

[22]

 Specificity

0.88

0.85–0.90

[22]

Liquid-based cytology test

 Sensitivity

0.85

0.80–0.90

[22]

 Specificity

0.90

0.85–0.95

[22]

HPV DNA test

 Sensitivity

0.95

0.80–0.98

[22]

 Specificity

0.85

0.80–0.90

[22]

VIA

 Sensitivity

0.68

0.50–0.70

[22,23,24]

 Specificity

0.85

0.66–0.96

[22,23,24]

Colposcopy and biopsy

 Sensitivity

1

0.50–1.0

[25]

 Specificity

1

0.50–1.0

[25]

 Age begin to screen

20

18–45

Assumed

 Screening intervals

3

1,3,5,10

Assumed

 Screening coverage

0.2

0.1–1.0

Assumed

 Vaccine coverage

0.2

0.1–1.0

Assumed

Costs (USD)

[38]

[38, 39]

vaccine administration (3 does)

4.84

0.5X-1.5X

Chinese Anti-Cancer Association

 Pap smear

6.75

0.5X-1.5X

Chinese Anti-Cancer Association

 Liquid-based cytology

43.89

0.5X-1.5X

Chinese Anti-Cancer Association

 HPV DNA test

56.45

0.5X-1.5X

Chinese Anti-Cancer Association

 VIA

5.06

0.5X-1.5X

Chinese Anti-Cancer Association

 Colposcopy and biopsy

32.26

0.5X-1.5X

Local field study

 Loop electrosurgical excision procedure (LEEP)

403.23

0.5X-1.5X

Local field study

 Cold knife conisation

887.10

0.5X-1.5X

Local field study

 Hysterectomy

2419.35

0.5X-1.5X

Local field study

 Localized cancer

3225.81

0.5X-1.5X

Local field study

 Regional cancer

4838.71

0.5X-1.5X

Local field study

 Metastatic cancer

6451.61

0.5X-1.5X

Local field study

 Genital warts

161.29

0.5X-1.5X

Local field study

Utilities

 CIN1

0.9965

0.992603–1.0

[33]

 CIN2

0.984

0.876–1.0

[33]

 CIN3

0.984

0.806–1.0

[33]

 Cancer

0.693

0.56–0.76

[33]

 Genital warts

0.827

0.701–0.933

[36]

 Cancer survival

0.850

0.82–0.88

[26, 34, 35]

Compliance of treatment

 CIN2+

0.9

[26]

 Cancer

1.0

Assumed

 Choose hysterectomy when CIN3

0.2 when >35

[26]

 Discount rate of cost

3%

0–6%

Assumed

 Discount rate of  effectiveness

3%

0–6%

Assumed