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Fig. 3 | BMC Infectious Diseases

Fig. 3

From: An agent-based model simulation of influenza interactions at the host level: insight into the influenza-related burden of pneumococcal infections

Fig. 3

Weekly incidence of simulated cases per 100,000 for influenza and the two possible co-circulating pathogens. 50 iterations of the model (grey and red lines) are presented, along with the average incidence over those iterations (black line for PI or second epidemic pathogen, dashed red line for influenza). (ad) For influenza (red), the following parameter values were used for the simulations: transmission probability 3.3% per contact-day; 23% of the population initially immunized; 20% case-reporting probability; no interaction mechanism activated between influenza and the second pathogen. For PI cases (black and grey), the following parameter values were used: carriage rate 20%; pathogenicity rate 4.2e-5 per day; no immunity; 100% case-reporting probability; no interaction mechanism activated (a), acquisition-interaction strength 50 (b), transmission-interaction strength 50 (c), and pathogenicity-interaction strength 50 (d). (e) Pneumococcal carriage prevalence rate for the baseline scenario, the acquisition-interaction strength 50, the transmission-interaction strength 50, and the pathogenicity-interaction strength 50. (fh) For influenza (red) and a second epidemic pathogen (black and grey) cases, the following parameter values were used for the latter: transmission probability 2.8% per contact-day; 25% of the population initially immunized; 20% case-reporting probability; no interaction mechanism activated (f), acquisition-interaction strength 25 (g), and cross-immunity–interaction strength 0.8 (h)

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