Fig. 3

Real-time risk-assessment for ZIKV transmission. All figures are based on transmission and importation risks estimated for Cameron County, Texas. a Two thousand simulated outbreaks. b Total number of (current) autochthonous cases as a function of the cumulative reported autochthonous cases, under a relatively high (dashed) or low (solid) reporting rate. Ribbons indicate 50% quantiles. c The increasing probability of imminent epidemic expansion as reported autochthonous cases accumulate for a low (solid) and high (dashed) reporting rate. Suppose a policy-maker plans to trigger a public health response as soon as a second case is reported (vertical line). Under a 10% reporting rate, this trigger would correspond to a 49% probability of an ensuing epidemic. Under a 20% reporting rate, the probability would be 25%