Table 11 Different error measures calculated for one-step-ahead epidemic curve over whole season (2013-2014), averaged across all HHS regions: Comparing Methods M1 to M6 and ARIMA approach

Method 1

316.18

378.63

0.39

0.33

0.34

0.29

Method 2

293.76

357.34

0.35

0.31

0.30

0.26

Method 3

224.53

293.52

0.25

0.22

0.22

0.20

Method 4

204.5

274.41

0.21

0.21

0.18

0.18

Method 5

224.57

293.90

0.25

0.22

0.22

0.20

Method 6

204.25

274.97

0.21

0.20

0.18

0.18

ARIMA

1015.60

1187.62

0.77

0.74

0.78

0.75