Table 3 Relative impact of additional childhood vaccination (2-10 years; 40% coverage) compared to no vaccination for different model scenarios together with marginal data likelihood corresponding to each model version
From: Is the impact of childhood influenza vaccination less than expected: a transmission modelling study
Model scenario | Predicted relative reduction (with 95%-PIa) of I-MAARI due to childhood vaccination | Marginal (log-)likelihoodb of the data |
|---|---|---|
Base model | 17.8% (17.1 – 18.7%) | -27077.2 |
S1: No B-lineage crossprotection | 15.3% (14.6 – 16.0%) | -27098.2 |
S2: Mass-action transmission | 56.5% (55.3 – 57.5%) | -30253.9 |
S3: POLYMOD contact structure | 19.5% (18.9 – 20.2%) | -26952.3 |
S4: Direct vaccination effects only | 7.9% (7.7 – 8.1%) | -27084.5 |