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Table 3 Relative impact of additional childhood vaccination (2-10 years; 40% coverage) compared to no vaccination for different model scenarios together with marginal data likelihood corresponding to each model version

From: Is the impact of childhood influenza vaccination less than expected: a transmission modelling study

Model scenario Predicted relative reduction (with 95%-PIa) of I-MAARI due to childhood vaccination Marginal (log-)likelihoodb of the data
Base model 17.8% (17.1 – 18.7%) -27077.2
S1: No B-lineage crossprotection 15.3% (14.6 – 16.0%) -27098.2
S2: Mass-action transmission 56.5% (55.3 – 57.5%) -30253.9
S3: POLYMOD contact structure 19.5% (18.9 – 20.2%) -26952.3
S4: Direct vaccination effects only 7.9% (7.7 – 8.1%) -27084.5
  1. a: prediction interval
  2. b: The marginal loglikelihoods measures a model capability of explaining the data. Differences greater than five indicate a strong preference for the model yielding a higher likelihood