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Table 2 Predicted impact of different vaccination scenarios assuming different target groups and coverage rates

From: Is the impact of childhood influenza vaccination less than expected: a transmission modelling study

Vaccination scenario Relative reductiona of I-MAARI (with 95%-PIb) Absolute reductiona of I-MAARI in million (with 95%-PIb) NNVc to prevent one I-MAARI
Historic vaccination scenario 8.6% (8.3% – 8.9%) -4.00 (-3.84 – -4.19) 37.1 (35.5 – 38.7)
  Vaccine coverage for childhood vaccination
20% 40% 60% 20% 40% 60% 20% 40% 60%
Historic vaccination rates and 2 – 6 year old children 11.0% (10.6% – 11.5%) 14.3% (13.6% – 14.9%) 17.4% (16.6% – 18.2%) -5.12 (-4.89 – -5.36) -6.62 (-6.32 – -6.97) -8.07 (-7.67 – -8.46) 30.0 (28.7 – 31.4) 24.3 (23.1 – 25.5) 20.8 (19.9 – 21.9)
Historic vaccination rates and 2 – 10 year old children 12.5% (12.0% – 13.2%) 17.8% (17.1% – 18.7%) 23.0% (21.9% – 24.1) -5.82 (-5.52 – -6.11) -8.28 (-7.91 – -8.75) -10.67 (-10.17 – -11.29) 27.2 (25.8 – 28.6) 20.7 (19.6 – 21.6) 17.3 (16.3 – 18.1)
Historic vaccination rates and 2 – 17 year old children 14.7% (14.0% – 15.4%) 22.9% (21.8% – 24.1%) 30.7% (29.3% – 32.0%) -6.80 (-6.50 – -7.13) -10.59 (-10.08 – -11.16) -14.23 (-13.54 – -15.00) 24.5 (23.3 – 25.6) 18.1 (17.1 – 19.0) 15.2 (14.4 – 15.9)
Historic vaccination and 2 – 10 year old children (40% coverage) using quadrivalent vaccines. 19.4% (18.6% – 20.4%) -9.00 (-8.56 – -9.50) 19.0 (18.0 – 20.0)
Historic vaccination and 2 – 10 year old children (40% coverage) using LAIVd. 20.9% (19.9% – 21.9%) -9.70 (-9.23 – -10.15) 17.7 (16.8 – 18.6)
Historic vaccination with complete coverage (100%) among elderly (≥ 60 years) 12.1% (11-6% – 12.4%) -5.62 (-5.38 – -5.87) 47.6 (45.6 – 49.7)
  1. a: over all ten modelled seasons
  2. b: prediction interval
  3. c: number needed to vaccinate
  4. d: LAIV-VE was assumed to be 50% higher among 2-6 year old children compared to inactivated vaccines