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Table 1 Model parameters to be estimated from epidemiological data, their prior ranges and posterior estimates

From: Is the impact of childhood influenza vaccination less than expected: a transmission modelling study

Parameter

Interpretation

Stratification

Prior domain

Posterior estimate (95% CrIa)

Source

γ

Recovery rate (inverse infectious duration)

None

1/γ [1/7; 2.5/7]

2.85 [2.81; 2.91]

[19, 49]

R e

Baseline transmission rate

none

[0; 1]

0.13 [0.10; 0.15]

Assumption

λ o

External force of infection

None

[0 ;  ∞ )

1.49 x 10-8 [0.96 x 10-8; 2.15 x 10-8]

Assumption

ρ

Spatial clustering parameter

None

[0; 1]

0.76 [0.75; 0.78]

[40]

m

Contact matrix mixing parameter

None

[1 ;  ∞ )

1.04 [1.01; 1.09]

[48]

δ

Amplitude of transmission rate

None

[0 ;  ∞ )

2.38 [2.23; 2.53]

Assumption

\( {p}_a^{(c)} \)

Age specific medical consultation probability

None

\( {p}_{<5}^{(c)}\in \left[0.28;0.46\right] \)

\( {p}_{\ge 5}^{(c)}\in \left[0.19;0.38\right] \)

0.453 [0.446; 0.457]

0.373 [0.365; 0.377]

[55]

t s

Seasonal shift in peak transmission

By season

[−0.125; 0.125]

See Additional file 1

Assumption

t z

Subtype-specific shift in peak transmission

By subtype

[−0.5; 0.5]

See Additional file 1

Assumption

σ a

Age specific susceptibility

By subtype

[0; 1]

See Fig. 2

[52]

φ

Season specific susceptible fraction

By season and subtype

[0; 1]

See Fig. 2

[52]

  1. a credibility interval