Table 1 Key parameters of the model
Parameter | Value | References | |
|---|---|---|---|
Population size | 4,000 | [2] | |
Average number of injecting partners during the injecting career | 12 | Derived from [38] | |
Initial distribution (HCV infection and cascade of care) | |||
Susceptible with high risk (recent initiation of injection) | 10.10% |
| SurvUDI, 2012–2014, unpublished data |
Susceptible with low risk (experienced PWID) | 36.80% | ||
Acute hepatitis C | 0%a | ||
Non-detected chronic hepatitis C | 8.40% |
| SurvUDI, 2012–2014, unpublished data |
Detected, non-linked to care chronic hepatitis C | 24.40% | ||
Detected and linked to care chronic hepatitis C | 15.30% | ||
Under treatment | 0.40% | ||
Non-responders after treatment | 4.60% | ||
Initial distribution in the natural history model | |||
F0/F1 | 61.1% |
| (Private communication, J. Bruneau) |
F2/F3 | 23.3% | ||
F4 | 15.6% | ||
Decompensated cirrhosis | 0%a | ||
HCC | 0%a | ||
Infection rate by injecting partner in Susceptible (low risk) | 0.025 y−1partner−1 | Fitted by Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to have a 22.1/100 p-y baseline incidence (SurvUDI, 2010–2013) | |
Mean time from the end of acute hepatitis C to detection | 2.0y | Derived from SurvUDI, 2012–2014, unpublished data | |
Mean duration of the high-risk period, i.e. Susceptibles (high risk, recently initiated PWID) | 4.0y | [39] | |
Mean time before linkage to care | 1.7y | Derived from Notifiable Disease Reporting System of the Montréal Public Health Department | |
Loss to follow-up rate | 10.3%/y | Derived from SurvUDI, 2012–2014, unpublished data | |
Treatment initiation rate when linked to care | 5%/y | Approximate value derived from SurvUDI, 2012–2014, based on current number of people under treatment (0.4%) | |
Treatment: incoming DAAs regimens | |||
Duration | 12 weeks |
| |
SVR rate – treatment naive - all genotypes- clinical trials | 90% | ||
Mean duration of injecting career | 9.5y | [43] | |
