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Table 1 Key parameters of the model

From: The need for treatment scale-up to impact HCV transmission in people who inject drugs in Montréal, Canada: a modelling study

Parameter Value References
Population size 4,000 [2]
Average number of injecting partners during the injecting career 12 Derived from [38]
Initial distribution (HCV infection and cascade of care)
Susceptible with high risk (recent initiation of injection) 10.10% SurvUDI, 2012–2014, unpublished data
Susceptible with low risk (experienced PWID) 36.80%
Acute hepatitis C 0%a  
Non-detected chronic hepatitis C 8.40% SurvUDI, 2012–2014, unpublished data
Detected, non-linked to care chronic hepatitis C 24.40%
Detected and linked to care chronic hepatitis C 15.30%
Under treatment 0.40%
Non-responders after treatment 4.60%
Initial distribution in the natural history model
F0/F1 61.1% (Private communication, J. Bruneau)
F2/F3 23.3%
F4 15.6%
Decompensated cirrhosis 0%a  
HCC 0%a
Infection rate by injecting partner in Susceptible (low risk) 0.025 y−1partner−1 Fitted by Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to have a 22.1/100 p-y baseline incidence (SurvUDI, 2010–2013)
Mean time from the end of acute hepatitis C to detection 2.0y Derived from SurvUDI, 2012–2014, unpublished data
Mean duration of the high-risk period, i.e. Susceptibles (high risk, recently initiated PWID) 4.0y [39]
Mean time before linkage to care 1.7y Derived from Notifiable Disease Reporting System of the Montréal Public Health Department
Loss to follow-up rate 10.3%/y Derived from SurvUDI, 2012–2014, unpublished data
Treatment initiation rate when linked to care 5%/y Approximate value derived from SurvUDI, 2012–2014, based on current number of people under treatment (0.4%)
Treatment: incoming DAAs regimens
Duration 12 weeks [914]
SVR rate – treatment naive - all genotypes- clinical trials 90%
Mean duration of injecting career 9.5y   [43]
  1. PWID people who inject drugs; SVR: sustained virological response
  2. aHypothesis