Influenza epidemic surveillance and prediction based on electronic health record data from an out-of-hours general practitioner cooperative: model development and validation on 2003–2015 data

Table 3 Observed versus one-season-ahead predicted epidemics using OOH GPC ILI data

	Peak week^a		Start^a		End^a		Duration^b
Season	Obs.	Pred.	Obs.	Pred.	Obs.	Pred.	Obs.	Pred.
2010–2011	2	8 (8–8)	47	41 (41–44)	12	18 (15–18)	18	30 (24–30)
2011–2012	9	7 (2–8)	1	50 (40–48)	18	15 (17–18)	18	18 (23–30)
2012–2013	5	8 (8–8)	45	42 (41–48)	15	13 (18–18)	23	24 (23–30)
2013–2014	7	8 (8–8)	50	44 (42–47)	15	15 (13–18)	18	24 (24–24)
2014–2015	6	7 (42–8)	47	44 (40–50)	16	13 (15–18)	22	22 (21–28)

^aWeek number; ^bNumber of weeks; Obs. observed data, Pred. prediction. Calculations are done as in [20]. The numbers in brackets are the values calculated by applying the calculation on 0.025 and, 0.975 percentiles of ILI prediction curves, respectively. Due to the small count, these curves are prone to distort the calculation

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