Epidemic | Endemic | k | logSa | WAICa | MSEb | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR(1) | β 0 + β 1 t + S t + C s | 5 | 64.8761 | 1101.893 | 13.8822 | M1 |
AR(1) | β 0 + β 1 t + S t | 64.9161 | 1103.298 | 17.8292 | M2 | |
AR(1) | β 0 + S t + C s | 5 | 64.9217 | 1101.101 | 14.5707 | M3 |
AR(1) | β 0 + S t + C s | 4 | 64.8822 | 1104.608 | 17.1564 | M4 |
AR(1) | β 0 + S t | 65.1286 | 1101.176 | 16.6048 | M5 | |
RW-1 | β 1 t + S t + C s | 5 | 64.5683 | 1103.741 | 21.1512 | M6 |
AR(1) | β 1 t + S t | 64.6006 | 1103.310 | 20458.71 | M7 | |
AR(1) | S t + C s | 5 | 64.5406 | 1102.243 | 14.2192 | M8 |
IID | S t | 403.3084 | 984.414 | 17.1342 | M9 | |
AR(1) | S t | 64.3999 | 1102.030 | 908.6617 | M10 | |
AR(1) | β 0 + β 1 t + sin(2πt/52) + cos(2πt/52) | 1.4243 | 1108.511 | 22.7856 | M11 |