Fig. 1

Presentation of the model structure and parameters. Parameters correspond to the probability of a patient transitioning to the state at the end of the corresponding arrow if initially in the state at the start of this arrow. The coloured boxes correspond to the outputs that we observe for quantifying the respective contributions of the different pathways to MDR/RR-TB at re-treatment. *‘new TB case’ stands for a patient presenting primary TB disease and who undergoes therapy against TB. Parameter a is the rate of MDR/RR-TB among new TB-cases. Parameter b is the DST coverage in new TB-cases while parameter h stands for the proportion of notified MDR/RR-TB cases that start on second-line regimen. Parameters c and d are the treatment success rates for new DS-TB cases and new MDR/RR-TB cases respectively. Parameter e represents the treatment success rate for MDR/RR-TB treated with first-line regimen. Parameter f is the risk of drug-resistance amplification for a DS-TB patient failing therapy. Parameter g is the proportion of recovered individual who get re-infected with TB. Parameters m and k are the death rate during treatment for DS-TB and MDR/RR-TB patients respectively