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Table 1 Parameters

From: Cost and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis treatment shortening: a model-based analysis

Parameter, value [range] South Africa Brazil Bangladesh Tanzania Reference
Population distribution
Smear-positivity: HIV-negative, HIV-positive no ART, HIV-positive ART 0.69, 0.35, 0.45 [29] [30]
MDR prevalence, among new patients 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 1.1% [1, 31, 32]
Prevalence of HIV in TB patients 62% 17% 3% 37% [1, 33, 34]
Diagnosis of TB
 TB diagnosis, sensitivity, smear, HIV negative 0.72 [0.62–0.82] [29, 35]
 TB diagnosis, sensitivity, smear, HIV positive 0.47 [0.51–0.43] [29, 35]
 TB diagnosis, sensitivity, GeneXpert, smear positive 0.98 [0.97–0.99] [36]
 TB diagnosis, sensitivity, GeneXpert, smear negative 0.68 [0.59–0.75] [36]
 TB diagnosis, specificity, GeneXpert, all 0.98 [0.97–0.99] [36]
 TB diagnosis, specificity, smear, all 1 assumption
 RIF-resistance diagnosis, sensitivity, GeneXpert, all 0.94 [0.87–0.97] [36]
 RIF-resistance diagnosis, specificity, GeneXpert, all 0.98 [0.97–0.99] [36]
Outcomes (first line treatment)
 Pr mortality:
  Pan-sensitive, HIV negative 0.03 [0.02–0.03] [37]
  MDR, HIV negative 0.11 [0.08–0.13] [37]
  Pan-sensitive, HIV positive, ART 0.07 [0.05–0.09] [38]
  Pan-sensitive, HIV positive, no ART 0.33 [0.30–0.43] [38]
  MDR, HIV positive, ART 0.11 [0.10–0.21] [38, 39]
  MDR, HIV positive, no ART 0.85 [0.72–0.98] [39]
 Pr cure, if treatment completed:
  Pan-sensitive 0.97 [0.95–0.98] [13]
  MDR 0.50 [0.40–0.55] [37]
 Pr cure, if less than 2 months treatment completed
  HIV negative, smear negative 0.20 [0.15–0.25] [4042]
  HIV negative, smear positive 0.30 [0.20–0.40] [4042]
  HIV positive, smear neg/pos, no ART 0 [0–0.05] [4042]
  HIV positive, smear negative, ART 0.10 [0.05–0.15] [4042]
  HIV positive, smear positive, ART 0.05 [0–0.10] [4042]
 Pr cure, if default at (standard 6mo regimen):
  2–3 months, pan-sensitive 0.68 [0.50–0.80] [43]
  2–3 months, MDR 0.35 [0.21–0.45] [43]
  4–5 months, pan-sensitive 0.86 [0.70–0.89] [44, 45]
  4–5 months, MDR 0.48 [0.29–0.51] [44, 45]
 Pr cure, if default at (new 4mo regimen):
  2–3 months, pan-sensitive 0.74 [0.57–0.83] Assumption
  2–3 months, MDR 0.38 [0.23–0.47] Assumption
Outcomes (second round of treatment)
 Pr patients returning to care after default 0.21 [0.10–0.70] [46]
 Pr patients staying in care after failure 0.60 [0.40–0.80] Assumption
 Pr mortality
  HIV negative/positive ART, pan-sensitive 0.06 [0.04–0.07] [37]
  HIV negative/positive ART, MDR 0.15 [0.10–0.20] [37]
  HIV positive no ART, pan-sensitive 0.33 [0.30–0.43] [38]
  HIV positive no ART, MDR 0.85 [0.72–0.98] [39]
MDR treatment and long term outcomes
 Pr cure, MDR treatment (including default) 0.65–0.80 [47]
 Mortality during MDR treatment 0.10 [48]
 Pr long term mortality (chronic TB patient or default patient if no return to care) 0.75 [0.50–0.99] [48]
 Self-cure among chronic TB patients 0.01 [48]
DALYs averted (discounted at 0.03/year)
 HIV negative, smear negative 12.5 [11.3–13.8] 19.3 [17.4–21.3] 15.3 [13.7–16.8] 14.2 [12.8–15.7] Additional file 1
 HIV negative, smear positive 15.2 [13.7–16.7] 22.0 [19.8–24.2] 17.9 [16.1–19.7] 16.9 [15.2–18.6] Additional file 1
 HIV positive, smear negative, no ART 1.8 [1.6–2.0] 1.8 [1.6–2.0] 1.8 [1.6–2.0] 1.8 [1.6–2.0] Additional file 1
 HIV positive, smear positive, no ART 2.0 [1.8–2.2] 2.0 [1.8–2.2] 2.0 [1.8–2.2] 2.0 [1.8–2.2] Additional file 1
 HIV positive, smear negative, ART 9.9 [8.9–10.9] 9.9 [8.9–10.9] 9.9 [8.9–10.9] 9.9 [8.9–10.9] Additional file 1
 HIV positive, smear positive, ART 10.1 [9.1–11.1] 10.1 [9.1–11.1] 10.1 [9.1–11.1] 10.1 [9.1–11.1] Additional file 1
  1. HIV human immunodeficiency virus, TB tuberculosis, ART antiretroviral treatment, MDR multidrug resistant, Pr probability
  2. Parameters with one value are included in the model as point estimates; parameters with a value and a range were included in the model as triangular distributions; parameters with only a range of two values were included in the model as a uniform distribution