Table 1 Selected model parameters and base case assumptions
From: Mortality along the continuum of HIV care in Rwanda: a model-based analysis
Parameter | Base case value | Uncertainty | Source(s) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Demographic parameters | ||||
Life expectancy, 2003 | ||||
Male | 50.9 | World Population Prospects [20] | ||
Female | 52.9 | World Population Prospects [20] | ||
Male circumcision prevalence | 30% | [20–40] | Binagwaho et al. [33] | |
Number of sexual partnerships in 12-month period | 2010 Rwanda DHS [21] | |||
0 | 56% | +/− 19% | ||
1 | 36% | +/− 9% | ||
2 | 7% | +/− 2% | ||
3+ | 1% | +/− 0.25% | ||
HIV program parameters | ||||
HIV testing: annual probability of receiving HIV test | ||||
2003–2010 | 20% | 10–30% | Rwanda DHS [21] | |
2010–2014 | 40% | 35–45% | Nsanzimana [10] | |
Portion of those tested who are connected to care | ||||
2003–2010 | 70% | Nsanzimana [10] | ||
2010–2014 | 90% | Nsanzimana [10] | ||
Rate of loss from pre-ART care | 0.5% monthly | 0.3–0.7% | Nsanzimana [10] | |
ART initiation threshold (CD4 counts, cells/mm3) | ||||
2003–2008 | 250 | |||
2008–2014 | 350 | |||
2014 | 500 | |||
Rate of loss to follow-up from ART care | 0.0875% monthly | 0.05–0.125% | Nsanzimana [10] | |
Probability of return after loss from ART care | 25% | 20–30% | Nsanzimana [10] | |
Morbidity & mortality parameters | ||||
Age-specific mortality | Yearly | Age-specific nqx | WHO life tables [28] | |
CD4-specific mortality | 6 CD4 bins | Mortality rate by CD4 | 95% CI for each rate | Nsanzimana [30], table 2 |
OD-specific risk by CD4 | 6 CD4 bins | Mortality rate by CD4 | 95% CI for each rate | Holmes [35] |
Portion of the population ever tested for HIV, 2010 | ||||
2005 | 30% | Rwanda DHS | ||
2010 | 65% | Rwanda DHS | ||
2013 | 78% | Nsanzimana [10] | ||