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Table 1 Selected model parameters and base case assumptions

From: Mortality along the continuum of HIV care in Rwanda: a model-based analysis

Parameter   Base case value Uncertainty Source(s)
Demographic parameters
Life expectancy, 2003     
  Male 50.9   World Population Prospects [20]
  Female 52.9   World Population Prospects [20]
Male circumcision prevalence   30% [20–40] Binagwaho et al. [33]
Number of sexual partnerships in 12-month period     2010 Rwanda DHS [21]
 0   56% +/− 19%  
 1   36% +/− 9%  
 2   7% +/− 2%  
 3+   1% +/− 0.25%  
HIV program parameters
HIV testing: annual probability of receiving HIV test
  2003–2010 20% 10–30% Rwanda DHS [21]
  2010–2014 40% 35–45% Nsanzimana [10]
Portion of those tested who are connected to care
  2003–2010 70%   Nsanzimana [10]
  2010–2014 90%   Nsanzimana [10]
Rate of loss from pre-ART care   0.5% monthly 0.3–0.7% Nsanzimana [10]
ART initiation threshold (CD4 counts, cells/mm3)
  2003–2008 250   Nsanzimana [10] and NSP [34]
  2008–2014 350   
  2014 500   
Rate of loss to follow-up from ART care   0.0875% monthly 0.05–0.125% Nsanzimana [10]
Probability of return after loss from ART care   25% 20–30% Nsanzimana [10]
Morbidity & mortality parameters
Age-specific mortality Yearly Age-specific nqx   WHO life tables [28]
CD4-specific mortality 6 CD4 bins Mortality rate by CD4 95% CI for each rate Nsanzimana [30], table 2
OD-specific risk by CD4 6 CD4 bins Mortality rate by CD4 95% CI for each rate Holmes [35]
Portion of the population ever tested for HIV, 2010
  2005 30%   Rwanda DHS
  2010 65%   Rwanda DHS
  2013 78%   Nsanzimana [10]