Fig. 1

Fitting procedure. a Nine pairs of parameter values \(({R_{0}^{\mathrm {c}}}, {\mu _{\mathrm {c}}})\) used in the simulations of epidemics on the temporal contact network. b Schematic visualization of the fitting procedure with results. We consider the average prevalence profile of an epidemic with parameters \(({R_{0}^{\mathrm {c}}}, {\mu _{\mathrm {c}}})\) unfolding on the contact network (black dashed line). The homogeneous mixing approach with the same parameter values generally leads to a different average prevalence curve (black dotted line). By exploring the parameter space in the homogeneous mixing approximation, we find the values of \((R_{0}^{\mathrm {h}},\mu _{h})\) that best reproduce the average prevalence curve obtained on the contact network (red continuous line). c Graphical visualization of the three epidemic features used for the evaluation of the fit: peak time T, peak value P and total size α