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Table 2 Results of main analyses and sensitivity analyses

From: Population seroprevalence of antibody to influenza A(H7N9) virus, Guangzhou, China

  Main analysis     Sensitivity analysis
  Alternative models including 2 specimens with HI and neutralization titers ≥40 Main model with alternative prior for cumulative incidence Main model including three specimens with HI titers ≥40
Model 1 2 3 4 1 1
Estimated overall cumulative incidence, θ (%) 0.43 (0.05, 1.32) 0.52 (0.06, 1.59) 0.17 (0.02, 0.50) 0.41 (0.06, 1.22) 0.40 (0.06, 1.17) 0.43 (0.05, 1.32)
Estimated total number of infections 55,385 (6503, 169,010) 66,441 (7572, 204,113) 21,638 (2910, 64,431) 52,507 (7387, 156,391) 51,644 (8091, 149,142) 55,481 (6576, 168,665)
ISR (per 10,000 infections) 5.90 (0.84, 25.11) 5.02 (0.69, 21.68) 14.17 (2.17, 56.43) 5.66 (0.90, 22.40) 5.82 (1.00, 21.71) 5.89 (0.83, 24.83)
IFR (per 10,000 infections) 4.07 (0.54, 17.41) 3.45 (0.44, 15.13) 9.75 (1.41, 39.48) 3.89 (0.58, 15.69) 4.11 (0.68, 15.68) 4.06 (0.54, 17.49)
  1. The main analysis was repeated to compare four alternative assumptions of expected scaled seroprevalence, x '  i . Sensitivity analyses aimed at comparing 1. main models using Jeffrey’s prior distribution (beta(0.5, 0.5)) versus flat beta prior distribution (i.e. beta(1, 1)) for cumulative incidence, θ, and 2. main models which considered two sera versus three sera that tested positive for H7N9 at a HI titer of ≥40. Note: All results are expressed in the most credible estimate (95 % credibility interval), ISR infection-severity risk, IFR infection-fatality risk