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Table 4 Designated and estimated prevalence of HPV18 by Linear Assay (LA)-only and sequential testing strategies in the United States and Latin America

From: Comparison of DNA testing strategies in monitoring human papillomavirus infection prevalence through simulation

Genotyping assay performance

Time

Designated composite prevalence (SD)

LA only

Sequential testing

Composite prevalence estimate (SD)

Estimate-to-true ratio

Composite prevalence estimate (SD)

Estimate-to-true ratio

United States

Sen = 1.00

Spe = 1.00

Baseline

0.019 (0.002)

0.019 (0.002)

1.000

0.003 (0.001)

0.158

Reduced

0.009 (0.002)

0.009 (0.002)

1.000

0.002 (0.001)

0.222

% Reduction

52

52

 

33

 

Sen = 0.95

Spe = 0.95

Baseline

0.019 (0.002)

0.067 (0.004)

3.526

0.020 (0.002)

1.053

Reduced

0.009 (0.002)

0.058 (0.004)

6.444

0.017 (0.002)

1.889

% Reduction

52

13.4

 

15

 

Sen = 0.95

Spe = 0.90

Baseline

0.019 (0.002)

0.116 (0.005)

6.105

0.043 (0.003)

2.263

Reduced

0.009 (0.002)

0.108 (0.005)

12.000

0.040 (0.003)

4.444

% Reduction

52

6.9

 

7

 

Sen = 0.90

Spe = 0.90

Baseline

0.019 (0.002)

0.115 (0.005)

6.052

0.042 (0.003)

2.210

Reduced

0.009 (0.002)

0.107 (0.005)

11.889

0.039 (0.003)

4.333

% Reduction

52

7.0

 

7.1

 

Sen = 0.90

Spe = 0.85

Baseline

0.019 (0.002)

0.164 (0.006)

8.632

0.066 (0.004)

3.474

Reduced

0.009 (0.002)

0.157 (0.006)

17.444

0.064 (0.004)

7.111

% Reduction

52

4.3

 

3.0

 

Sen = 0.85

Spe = 0.85

Baseline

0.019 (0.002)

0.163 (0.006)

8.579

0.066 (0.004)

3.474

Reduced

0.009 (0.002)

0.156 (0.006)

17.33

0.063 (0.004)

7.000

% Reduction

52

4.3

 

4.5

 

Sen = 0.80

Spe = 0.80

Baseline

0.019 (0.002)

0.211 (0.006)

11.105

0.090 (0.004)

4.737

Reduced

0.009 (0.002)

0.206 (0.006)

22.889

0.088 (0.005)

9.778

% Reduction

52

2.3

 

2.2

 

Latin America

      

Sen = 1.00

Spe = 1.00

Baseline

0.012 (0.002)

0.012 (0.002)

1.000

0.003 (0.001)

0.250

Reduced

0.006 (0.002)

0.006 (0.002)

1.000

0.001 (0.001)

0.167

% Reduction

50

50

 

50

 

Sen = 0.95

Spe = 0.95

Baseline

0.012 (0.002)

0.061 (0.004)

5.083

0.016 (0.002)

1.333

Reduced

0.006 (0.002)

0.056 (0.004)

9.333

0.015 (0.002)

2.500

% Reduction

50

8.2

 

6.3

 

Sen = 0.95

Spe = 0.90

Baseline

0.012 (0.002)

0.110 (0.005)

9.167

0.039 (0.003)

3.250

Reduced

0.006 (0.001)

0.105 (0.005)

17.500

0.037 (0.003)

6.167

% Reduction

50

4.5

 

5.1

 

Sen = 0.90

Spe = 0.90

Baseline

0.012 (0.002)

0.109 (0.005)

9.083

0.039 (0.003)

3.250

Reduced

0.006 (0.001)

0.105 (0.005)

17.500

0.037 (0.003)

6.167

% Reduction

50

3.7

 

5.1

 

Sen = 0.90

Spe = 0.85

Baseline

0.012 (0.002)

0.159 (0.006)

13.250

0.063 (0.004)

5.250

Reduced

0.006 (0.001)

0.154 (0.006)

25.667

0.062 (0.004)

10.333

% Reduction

50

3.1

 

1.6

 

Sen = 0.85

Spe = 0.85

Baseline

0.012 (0.002)

0.158 (0.006)

13.167

0.063 (0.004)

5.250

Reduced

0.006 (0.001)

0.154 (0.005)

25.667

0.061 (0.004)

10.166

% Reduction

50

3.1

 

3.1

 

Sen = 0.80

Spe = 0.80

Baseline

0.012 (0.002)

0.207 (0.006)

17.250

0.087 (0.004)

7.250

Reduced

0.006 (0.001)

0.204 (0.006)

34.000

0.086 (0.004)

14.333

% Reduction

50

1.1

 

1.1

 
  1. Type-specific prevalence at baseline, in the US: HPV18 = 0.019; in Latin America: HPV18 = 0.012
  2. Reduced: HPV18 is reduced by 50 %
  3. Abbreviations: SD standard deviation, Sen sensitivity, Spe specificity