Development of a prediction model for bacteremia in hospitalized adults with cellulitis to aid in the efficient use of blood cultures: a retrospective cohort study

Table 4 Calculation of the Bacteremia Score of Cellulitis on the basis of the variables identified by the logistic regression model and the discriminatory power assessed by the area under the ROC curve

Variable	Odds ratio (95 % CI)	Coefficient (β)	p-value	Clinical score^a
Age ≥65 years	3.12 (1.31–7.42)	1.138	0.010	1
Involvement of non-lower limb extremities	5.08 (2.06–12.51)	1.624	<0.001	1.5
Liver cirrhosis	8.68 (2.52–29.88)	2.161	0.001	2
SIRS	13.48 (4.99–36.42)	2.601	<0.001	2.5
Area under ROC curve (95 % CI)
	Initial Bacteremia Score of Cellulitis^b	0.867 (0.806–0.928)
	Rounded Bacteremia Score of Cellulitis^c	0.865 (0.804–0.926)

ROC receiver operating characteristics, CI confidence interval; SIRS, systemic inflammatory response syndrome
^aClinical scores of each variable present are added. For example, a patient aged ≥65 years, involvement of non-lower limb extremities, SIRS, and no history of liver cirrhosis has a clinical score of: 1 + 1.5 + 0 + 2.5 = 5.0
^bInitial Bacteremia Score of Cellulitis = 1.138 × age ≥65 years + 1.624 × involvement of non-lower extremities + 2.161 × liver cirrhosis + 2.601 × SIRS status
^cRounded Bacteremia Score of Cellulitis = 1 × age ≥65 + 1.5 × involvement of non-lower extremities + 2 × liver cirrhosis + 2.5 × SIRS status

ISSN: 1471-2334