Fig. 8

a 95 % quantiles of the score-weighted distributions of (red) statewide mean SIA coverage over time as estimated in calibration of the presented model; (orange) statewide mean SIA coverage over time as estimated using a model based on non-polio acute flaccid paralysis (NP-AFP); (black) statewide mean SIA coverage as estimated from lot quality assurance sampling (data provided by Nigerian WHO); (blue) statewide mean vaccine-derived immunity in 0–5 year olds from the presented model; (green) statewide mean vaccine-derived immunity in 0–5 year olds from a statistical model deriving campaign coverage from the reported vaccine dose histories of non-polio acute flaccid paralysis cases. The NP-AFP immunity model is an extension of that presented in [56] (publication detailing newer model is in preparation). b Illustration of historical campaign calendar in Kano state