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Table 3 Predictors of tuberculosis smear non-conversion in new tuberculosis cases

From: Risk factors for tuberculosis smear non-conversion in Eden district, Western Cape, South Africa, 2007–2013: a retrospective cohort study

Variable Total Non-converters Univariate analysis Multivariate analysis
N n % Crude OR 95 % CI p-value Adjusted OR 95 % CI p-value
Age, years 10,506 1411        
 0–14 157 5 3.18 Reference      
 15–30 4325 419 9.69 3.26 1.33–7.99 0.010 2.32 0.94–5.73 0.067
 31–45 3801 596 15.68 5.65 2.31–13.8 <0.000 3.77 1.53–9.31 0.004
 46–60 1816 325 17.89 6.63 2.69–16.27 <0.000 4.65 1.88–11.5 0.001
 >60 407 66 16.22 5.88 2.32–14.89 <0.000 4.56 1.79–11.6 0.001
Gender 10,574 1411        
 Female 4380 451 10.29 Reference    Reference   
 Male 6194 960 15.49 1.59 1.42–1.80 <0.000 1.44 1.27–1.63 <0.000
HIV 10,574 1411        
 Negative 7538 979 12.98 Reference    Reference   
 Positive 2192 341 15.56 1.23 1.08–1.41 0.002 1.41 1.22–1.62 <0.000
 Unknown 844 91 10.78 0.81 0.64–1.02 0.069 0.74 0.58–0.94 0.013
Pretreatment smear grading 10,574 1411        
 Scanty 936 47 5.02 Reference    Reference   
 AFB+ 2271 173 7.76 1.56 1.12–2.17 0.009 1.64 1.17–2.28 0.004
 AFB++ 2227 240 10.78 2.28 1.65–3.15 <0.000 2.42 1.75–3.35 <0.000
 AFB+++ 4613 904 19.59 4.61 3.41–6.24 <0.000 4.83 3.56–6.55 <0.000
 Not recorded 527 47 8.92 1.85 1.22–2.82 0.004 1.86 1.22–2.84 0.004
Year          
 2007 1461 240 16.43 Reference    Reference   
 2008 1670 249 14.91 0.89 0.73–1.08 0.244 0.81 0.66–0.99 0.044
 2009 1764 247 14.00 0.83 0.68–1.00 0.056 0.75 0.62–0.92 0.006
 2010 1560 151 9.68 0.54 0.44–0.67 0.000 0.52 0.41–0.64 0.000
 2011 1382 177 12.61 0.75 0.61–0.92 0.007 0.71 0.57–0.88 0.002
 2012 1460 185 12.67 0.74 0.60–0.91 0.004 0.68 0.55–084 0.000
 2013 1277 162 12.69 0.74 0.59–0.92 0.006 0.75 0.60–0.94 0.012
Sub-district 10,574 1411        
 Bitou 913 103 11.28 Reference    Reference   
 George 3919 533 13.60 1.24 0.98–1.54 0.062 1.20 0.95–1.51 0.119
 Hessequa 6.83 93 13.62 1.24 0.92–1.67 0.160 1.28 0.94–1.74 0.117
 Kannaland 504 68 13.49 1.23 0.88–1.70 0.222 1.18 0.84–1.66 0.312
 Knysna 1131 143 12.64 1.14 0.87–1.49 0.347 1.13 0.85–1.48 0.398
 Mossel Bay 1699 241 14.18 1.29 1.01–1.66 0.037 1.28 1.00–1.66 0.050
 Oudtshoorn 1725 230 13.33 1.21 0.94–1.54 0.132 1.18 0.92–1.53 0.192