Table 3 Predictors of tuberculosis smear non-conversion in new tuberculosis cases

Age, years

10,506

1411

 0–14

157

5

3.18

Reference

 15–30

4325

419

9.69

3.26

1.33–7.99

0.010

2.32

0.94–5.73

0.067

 31–45

3801

596

15.68

5.65

2.31–13.8

<0.000

3.77

1.53–9.31

0.004

 46–60

1816

325

17.89

6.63

2.69–16.27

<0.000

4.65

1.88–11.5

0.001

 >60

407

66

16.22

5.88

2.32–14.89

<0.000

4.56

1.79–11.6

0.001

Gender

10,574

1411

 Female

4380

451

10.29

Reference

Reference

 Male

6194

960

15.49

1.59

1.42–1.80

<0.000

1.44

1.27–1.63

<0.000

HIV

10,574

1411

 Negative

7538

979

12.98

Reference

Reference

 Positive

2192

341

15.56

1.23

1.08–1.41

0.002

1.41

1.22–1.62

<0.000

 Unknown

844

91

10.78

0.81

0.64–1.02

0.069

0.74

0.58–0.94

0.013

Pretreatment smear grading

10,574

1411

 Scanty

936

47

5.02

Reference

Reference

 AFB+

2271

173

7.76

1.56

1.12–2.17

0.009

1.64

1.17–2.28

0.004

 AFB++

2227

240

10.78

2.28

1.65–3.15

<0.000

2.42

1.75–3.35

<0.000

 AFB+++

4613

904

19.59

4.61

3.41–6.24

<0.000

4.83

3.56–6.55

<0.000

 Not recorded

527

47

8.92

1.85

1.22–2.82

0.004

1.86

1.22–2.84

0.004

Year

 2007

1461

240

16.43

Reference

Reference

 2008

1670

249

14.91

0.89

0.73–1.08

0.244

0.81

0.66–0.99

0.044

 2009

1764

247

14.00

0.83

0.68–1.00

0.056

0.75

0.62–0.92

0.006

 2010

1560

151

9.68

0.54

0.44–0.67

0.000

0.52

0.41–0.64

0.000

 2011

1382

177

12.61

0.75

0.61–0.92

0.007

0.71

0.57–0.88

0.002

 2012

1460

185

12.67

0.74

0.60–0.91

0.004

0.68

0.55–084

0.000

 2013

1277

162

12.69

0.74

0.59–0.92

0.006

0.75

0.60–0.94

0.012

Sub-district

10,574

1411

 Bitou

913

103

11.28

Reference

Reference

 George

3919

533

13.60

1.24

0.98–1.54

0.062

1.20

0.95–1.51

0.119

 Hessequa

6.83

93

13.62

1.24

0.92–1.67

0.160

1.28

0.94–1.74

0.117

 Kannaland

504

68

13.49

1.23

0.88–1.70

0.222

1.18

0.84–1.66

0.312

 Knysna

1131

143

12.64

1.14

0.87–1.49

0.347

1.13

0.85–1.48

0.398

 Mossel Bay

1699

241

14.18

1.29

1.01–1.66

0.037

1.28

1.00–1.66

0.050

 Oudtshoorn

1725

230

13.33

1.21

0.94–1.54

0.132

1.18

0.92–1.53

0.192