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Table 2 Goodness-of-fit and diagnostic performance of risk models for predicting importation of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)

From: Predicting the international spread of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)

ID Model Number of parameters AIC1 AUC2 Sensitivity (%) Specificity (%)
1 Effective distance only 1 464.1 0.95 (0.54,1.00) 100.0 (88.3, 100.0) 79.6 (74.0, 85.2)
2 Effective distance + religion 2 461.2 0.87 (0.46, 1.00) 100.0 (88.3, 100.0) 69.2 (62.8, 75.5)
3 Effective distance + incidence 1 357.2 0.95 (0.54, 1.00) 100.0 (88.3, 100.0) 79.6 (74.0, 85.2)
4 All pieces of information 2 354.7 0.87 (0.46, 1.00) 100.0 (88.3, 100.0) 69.2 (62.8, 75.5)
  1. 95 % confidence intervals (CI) are given in parenthesis. 1. AIC, Akaike information criterion [30]. Note that the data used for parameterizing models 1 and 2 were different from those used for models 3 and 4, and thus, the comparison can be made only between models 1 and 2 and between models 3 and 4, respectively; 2. AUC, area under the curve, derived from the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve [31] to predict the risk of importing a MERS case