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Table 4 Forecasts within 1 week or percent of the start week, peak week, peak percentage, and duration of the 2013–14 influenza season, by forecast date, United States (n = 13)

From: Results from the centers for disease control and prevention’s predict the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Challenge

Date of forecast (Week of ILINet data availabilitya,b) Start week Peak week Peak percentage Duration of influenza season
12/2/2013 (WK. 46) 3 (23 %) 1 (8 %) 3 (23 %) 4 (31 %)
12/19/2013 (WK. 49) 6 (46 %) 2 (15 %) 6 (46 %) 6 (46 %)
1/2/2014 (WK. 51) 12 (92 %)c 2 (15 %) 5 (38 %) 7 (54 %)
1/16/2014 (WK.1) 12 (92 %) 6 (46 %) 10 (77 %) 6 (46 %)
1/30/2014 (WK. 3) 11 (85 %) 11 (85 %) 11 (85 %) 6 (46 %)
2/13/2014 (WK. 5) 11 (85 %) 10 (77 %) 12 (92 %) 6 (46 %)
2/27/2014 (WK. 7) 11 (85 %) 11 (85 %) 13 (100 %) 5 (38 %)
3/13/2014 (WK. 9) 11 (85 %) 11 (85 %) 13 (100 %) 9 (69 %)
3/27/2014 (WK. 11) 10 (77 %) 12 (92 %) 13 (100 %) 10 (77 %)
  1. Legend: Forecasts presented here are from the 9 teams that successfully completed the CDC Predict the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Challenge. The start of the season was defined as the first surveillance week in ILINet where the number of visits for ILI divided by the total number of patient visits (the ILINet percentage) was above the national baseline value of 2.0 % and remained there for at least two additional weeks. The peak week of the season was defined as the surveillance week that the ILINet percentage was the highest during the 2013–14 influenza season. The ILINet percent peak was defined as the highest numeric value that the ILINet percentage reached in the United States during the 2013–14 influenza season. The duration was defined as the number of weeks that the ILINet percentage remained above the national baseline
  2. aILINet data are based on a reporting week that starts on Sunday and ends on Saturday of each week, and data are reported out through the FluView surveillance report the following Friday. Therefore, the most current ILINet data can lag the calendar date by 1–2 weeks
  3. bWeeks are given in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report surveillance weeks. For calendar start and end dates of each week, please see http://wwwn.cdc.gov/nndss/script/downloads.aspx
  4. cLast forecast received before milestone observed in ILINet