Skip to main content

Table 3 Performance of models and derived risk scores

From: Predicting resistance as indicator for need to switch from first-line antiretroviral therapy among patients with elevated viral loads: development of a risk score algorithm

Predictor Model with baseline VL (n = 290) Model without baseline VL (n = 290) Model without baseline VL or CD4 (n = 260)
Cutoff Sensitivity Specificity Cutoff Sensitivity Specificity Cutoff Sensitivity Specificity
Unrestricted (RLS & non-RLS)          
 Modela 0.657 22.7 % 98.1 % 0.640 22.7 % 97.2 % 0.741 13.4 % 98.4 %
 Weighted risk score ≥9 28.0 % 96.7 % ≥9 16.0 % 98.6 % ≥9 14.7 % 98.1 %
Restricted (RLS only)          
 Modela 0.653 28.0 % 97.2 % 0.697 18.7 % 98.1 % 0.691 14.9 % 98.4 %
 Weighted risk score ≥9 26.0 % 97.4 % ≥9 10.0 % 99.5 % ≥9 14.0 % 99.5 %
  1. aCutoff values for the models are thresholds derived by summing the beta coefficients and converting to a probability RLS, resource-limited setting; VL, viral load