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Table 2 Adjusted odds ratios and risk scores of need for ART change

From: Predicting resistance as indicator for need to switch from first-line antiretroviral therapy among patients with elevated viral loads: development of a risk score algorithm

Predictor

Model 1 (with baseline VL) (n = 290), AUROC = 0.8165

Model 2 (without baseline VL) (n = 290), AUROC = 0.7981

Model 3 (without baseline VL or CD4) (n = 260), AUROC = 0.7937

 

Full model OR (95 % CI)

Reduced OR (95 % CI)

βb

Predictor scorea

Full model OR (95 % CI)

Reduced model OR (95 % CI)

βc

Predictor scorea

Full model OR (95 % CI)

OR (95 % CI)

βd

Predictor scorea

Age, years

            

  ≤ 30

2.2 (1.0–4.6)

2.1 (1.0–4.1)

0.72

1

1.8 (0.9–3.7)

1.8 (0.9–3.5)

0.59

1

1.6 (0.8–3.2)

1.7 (0.9–3.4)

0.53

1

  > 30

1.0

1.0

 

0

1.0

1.0

 

0

1.0

1.0

 

0

Sex

            

 Male

0.7 (0.4–1.4)

- -

-

-

0.7 (0.3–1.3)

- -

-

-

0.7 (0.4–1.4)

- -

-

-

 Female

1.0

- -

-

-

1.0

- -

-

-

1.0

- -

-

-

BMI, kg/m2

            

 Normal/low (<24.9)

1.0

1.0

 

0

1.0

1.0

 

0

1.0

1.0

 

0

 High (>25.0)

2.8 (1.2–6.4)

3.7 (1.8–7.8)

1.31

2

2.5 (1.1–5.6)

3.2 (1.6–6.6)

1.18

2

2.3 (1.1–4.1)

2.7 (1.2–5.7)

0.98

2

Treatment initiation VL, copies/ml

            

  ≤ 100,000

1.0

1.0

 

0

- -

- -

-

-

- -

- -

-

-

  > 100,000

3.2 (1.5–7.1)

3.6 (1.8–7.0)

1.27

2

- -

- -

-

-

- -

- -

-

-

Time on therapy, months

            

  < 7

4.2 (1.9–9.2)

4.2 (2.0–8.6)

1.43

3

3.9 (1.8–8.3)

4.3 (2.1–8.7)

1.45

3

3.6 (1.7–7.6)

3.7 (1.8–7.8)

1.32

3

 7–12

2.0 (0.8–5.1)

2.9 (1.2–6.9)

1.07

2

1.9 (0.8–4.8)

3.1 (1.3–7.2)

1.13

2

1.9 (0.8–4.8)

2.1 (0.9–5.2)

0.76

2

  > 12

1.0

1.0

 

0

1.0

1.0

 

0

 

1.0

 

0

VLe, copies/ml

            

  ≤ 10,000

1.0

1.0

 

0

1.0

1.0

 

0

1.0

1.0

 

0

 10,001–100,000

7.3 (3.4–15.9)

6.3 (3.1–13.0)

1.85

4

7.4 (3.4–15.8)

6.3 (3.1–12.8)

1.85

4

6.5 (3.1–13.5)

6.5 (3.1–13.3)

1.87

4

  > 100,000

2.8 (1.1–7.2)

2.7 (1.2–6.1)

0.99

2

2.7 (1.1–6.8)

3.1 (1.4–7.0)

1.15

2

2.7 (1.1–6.6)

3.0 (1.2–7.2)

1.10

2

CD4 at screening, cells/mm3

            

  ≤ 100

1.8 (0.9–3.9)

- -

-

-

2.6 (1.3–5.3)

2.2 (1.2–4.3)

0.81

2

- -

- -

-

-

  > 100

1.0

- -

-

-

1.0

1.0

 

0

- -

- -

-

-

History of TB

            

 Yes

1.0

- -

-

-

1.0

- -

-

-

1.0

- -

-

-

 No

1.8 (0.7–4.5)

- -

-

-

1.3 (0.6–3.2)

- -

-

-

1.3 (0.6–3.2)

- -

-

-

Treatment changed while on study

            

 Yes

0.4 (0.1–1.3)

- -

-

-

0.4 (0.1–1.2)

- -

-

-

0.4 (0.1–1.3)

- -

-

-

 No

1.0

- -

-

-

1.0

- -

-

-

1.0

- -

-

-

Ever missed meds

            

 Yes

1.8 (0.9–3.7)

- -

-

-

2.1 (1.0–4.1)

- -

-

-

2.1 (1.0–4.1)

1.8 (1.0–3.6)

0.61

1

 No

1.0

- -

-

-

1.0

- -

-

-

 

1.0

 

0

  1. aweighted; bconstant = −3.94; cconstant = −3.42; dconstant = −3.11
  2. eViral load at time of first VL ≥1000 copies/ml
  3. CI confidence interval, β beta regression coefficient, BMI body mass index, NNRTI non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, NRTI nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, OR odds ratio, AUROC area under receiver operating characteristic curve, VL viral load