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Table 2 Adjusted odds ratios and risk scores of need for ART change

From: Predicting resistance as indicator for need to switch from first-line antiretroviral therapy among patients with elevated viral loads: development of a risk score algorithm

Predictor Model 1 (with baseline VL) (n = 290), AUROC = 0.8165 Model 2 (without baseline VL) (n = 290), AUROC = 0.7981 Model 3 (without baseline VL or CD4) (n = 260), AUROC = 0.7937
  Full model OR (95 % CI) Reduced OR (95 % CI) βb Predictor scorea Full model OR (95 % CI) Reduced model OR (95 % CI) βc Predictor scorea Full model OR (95 % CI) OR (95 % CI) βd Predictor scorea
Age, years             
  ≤ 30 2.2 (1.0–4.6) 2.1 (1.0–4.1) 0.72 1 1.8 (0.9–3.7) 1.8 (0.9–3.5) 0.59 1 1.6 (0.8–3.2) 1.7 (0.9–3.4) 0.53 1
  > 30 1.0 1.0   0 1.0 1.0   0 1.0 1.0   0
Sex             
 Male 0.7 (0.4–1.4) - - - - 0.7 (0.3–1.3) - - - - 0.7 (0.4–1.4) - - - -
 Female 1.0 - - - - 1.0 - - - - 1.0 - - - -
BMI, kg/m2             
 Normal/low (<24.9) 1.0 1.0   0 1.0 1.0   0 1.0 1.0   0
 High (>25.0) 2.8 (1.2–6.4) 3.7 (1.8–7.8) 1.31 2 2.5 (1.1–5.6) 3.2 (1.6–6.6) 1.18 2 2.3 (1.1–4.1) 2.7 (1.2–5.7) 0.98 2
Treatment initiation VL, copies/ml             
  ≤ 100,000 1.0 1.0   0 - - - - - - - - - - - -
  > 100,000 3.2 (1.5–7.1) 3.6 (1.8–7.0) 1.27 2 - - - - - - - - - - - -
Time on therapy, months             
  < 7 4.2 (1.9–9.2) 4.2 (2.0–8.6) 1.43 3 3.9 (1.8–8.3) 4.3 (2.1–8.7) 1.45 3 3.6 (1.7–7.6) 3.7 (1.8–7.8) 1.32 3
 7–12 2.0 (0.8–5.1) 2.9 (1.2–6.9) 1.07 2 1.9 (0.8–4.8) 3.1 (1.3–7.2) 1.13 2 1.9 (0.8–4.8) 2.1 (0.9–5.2) 0.76 2
  > 12 1.0 1.0   0 1.0 1.0   0   1.0   0
VLe, copies/ml             
  ≤ 10,000 1.0 1.0   0 1.0 1.0   0 1.0 1.0   0
 10,001–100,000 7.3 (3.4–15.9) 6.3 (3.1–13.0) 1.85 4 7.4 (3.4–15.8) 6.3 (3.1–12.8) 1.85 4 6.5 (3.1–13.5) 6.5 (3.1–13.3) 1.87 4
  > 100,000 2.8 (1.1–7.2) 2.7 (1.2–6.1) 0.99 2 2.7 (1.1–6.8) 3.1 (1.4–7.0) 1.15 2 2.7 (1.1–6.6) 3.0 (1.2–7.2) 1.10 2
CD4 at screening, cells/mm3             
  ≤ 100 1.8 (0.9–3.9) - - - - 2.6 (1.3–5.3) 2.2 (1.2–4.3) 0.81 2 - - - - - -
  > 100 1.0 - - - - 1.0 1.0   0 - - - - - -
History of TB             
 Yes 1.0 - - - - 1.0 - - - - 1.0 - - - -
 No 1.8 (0.7–4.5) - - - - 1.3 (0.6–3.2) - - - - 1.3 (0.6–3.2) - - - -
Treatment changed while on study             
 Yes 0.4 (0.1–1.3) - - - - 0.4 (0.1–1.2) - - - - 0.4 (0.1–1.3) - - - -
 No 1.0 - - - - 1.0 - - - - 1.0 - - - -
Ever missed meds             
 Yes 1.8 (0.9–3.7) - - - - 2.1 (1.0–4.1) - - - - 2.1 (1.0–4.1) 1.8 (1.0–3.6) 0.61 1
 No 1.0 - - - - 1.0 - - - -   1.0   0
  1. aweighted; bconstant = −3.94; cconstant = −3.42; dconstant = −3.11
  2. eViral load at time of first VL ≥1000 copies/ml
  3. CI confidence interval, β beta regression coefficient, BMI body mass index, NNRTI non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, NRTI nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, OR odds ratio, AUROC area under receiver operating characteristic curve, VL viral load